Ward's Forecasts Lower U.S. Auto Sales In January

SOUTHFIELD, Mich., Jan. 11 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Ward's Communications, a PRIMEDIA company and the world's leading provider of auto industry information, today forecast that January U.S. light-vehicle sales will fall 15 percent from the fourth quarter's torrid pace.

Ward's forecast, updated monthly for subscribers to WardsAuto.com, indicates cars and light trucks will sell at a tepid seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.7 million this month. This is the lowest monthly rate in over three years.

The decline -- 5.4% from a year-ago on a daily rate basis, to 1.105-million units -- follows an incentive-fueled record pace in fourth-quarter 2001 that elevated the year's sales volume to second-best ever, behind only calendar 2000. The SAAR for last year's final three months taken together swelled to 18.6 million, but sales slowed during the period to a 16.4-million rate in December.

The 15.7-million SAAR forecast for January continues the downward trend, as zero-percent financing ended. But because manufacturers substituted large rebates, Ward's says sales now won't drop off the cliff. Incentives could rise though if volume ebbs too much, Ward's noted.

The slowdown is factored into manufacturer production plans, so output does not need to be cut, Ward's said. ``With first-quarter sales likely heading for a 16-million annual rate, inventory should be closely in-line with current demand at the end of January,'' said Haig Stoddard, Ward's manager of industry analysis. ``And with relatively strong production on tap for February, inventory should stay in balance with demand during the peak spring selling season.''