Major Changes Looming as Drive -by-Wire Technologies Emerge
Automotive analysts Frost & Sullivan are predicting a change in the landscape of the car industry. Everything from designing vehicles, sourcing components, logistics and inventory management to packaging and producing cars will be transformed by X-by-wire technologies. The technology will accelerate the pace of growth in electronics in vehicles and curb the use of hydraulics and mechanical components. Certain products that are fitted as standard in cars will disappear, never to be seen again. The technology also threatens to unleash a paradigm shift in the supply structure: forcing the emergency of tier 0.5 suppliers and relegating those who cannot cope with the changes to a tier down. The dramatic changes are all highlighted in Frost & Sullivan’s latest report into the European X-by-Wire Technologies Market. The analysts have valued the market at E324 million in 2000. It is forecast to rise to E3.3 billion in 2010. However, European Automotive Programme Manager Sarwant Singh says that to accelerate development in this technology, vehicle manufacturers (VMs) need to sing from the same hymn sheets in standarising systems and protocols. “It is of major importance that VMs standarise communication protocols, work together to bring 42V electronics into cars, develop standard components and share their knowledge. “There seems to be divergent strategies in the marketplace by VMs. Companies like BMW and DaimlerChrysler are pitching for Flexray as the communication protocol and others like VW and Audi are championing for TTA," Singh continues. "This is leaving the systems and electronics suppliers in a lurch. They have to double their investment, and this is creating confusion and bad politics in the market. All VMs and suppliers also need to work together to bring 42V systems into cars and develop fault tolerant systems. It is critical for the success of this technology that suppliers and VMs work together to create a unique and safe driving experience for their customers.” The study found that, in comparison to other x-by-wire technologies, steer-by-wire systems are expected to make the biggest market impact. “Steer-by-wire systems will boost safety and security, add to steering comfort and convenience, reduce production costs, boost productivity and give flexibility in designing and developing cars, providing opportunities to redesign cockpits and crumple zones, and the possibility of using joysticks,” Singh says. “Most importantly, these systems will provide the vital link with driver assistance systems, including functions such as automatic parking assistance and lane control.” For almost all the x-by-wire technologies, there will be a transition technology, normally termed as electro-hydraulic systems (also called wet systems) before the emergence of "true" x-by-wire systems. For example, the first steer-by-wire system to appear on the market will have steering columns and hydraulics. The first electro-hydraulic steering system is expected to be launched around 2005, probably by ZF Lenksysteme. In 2008, the European market is likely see the emergence of "true" steer-by-wire systems, which will eliminate the steering column. Singh estimates market penetration of these systems in this decade will be less than five percent, generating revenues of only E234 million in 2010. However, they are predicted to take off around 2012 and their penetration rate is likely to be comparable, if not better, than the rate of electrical power steerings today. The European brake-by-wire market is expected to leap from absolutely nothing in 2000 to about E1.1 billion in 2010. Electro-hydraulic brakes (EHB) are expected to dominate sales of brake-by-wire in this decade. The market split in 2010 between EHB and electro-mechanical brake (EMB) systems is expected to be around 75:25. EHB appeared in the European market in the summer of 2001, when it was launched by DaimlerChrysler on its new S-series. The supplier, Bosch, is expected to ship only a few hundred units this year. Next year, EHB is expected to appear on other DaimlerChrysler models. By 2003, other VMs and suppliers are expected to catch up. Frost & Sullivan expects EMB systems, which are likely to be first launched by Brembo in 2005, to increase penetration steeply from 2010 onwards and have a penetration rate of around 20-25 percent by 2015. It is also expected that EMB systems will compete with EHB systems, and possibly even overtake them in terms of volumes between 2010 and 2015. EMB systems are expected to offer higher savings to VMs in production, inventory management, logistics and warranty costs, therefore enabling higher and faster penetration once the platforms are converted into 42V. Volume producers like VW, Fiat and Renault have indicated to Frost & Sullivan that it is not their objective to use EHB systems extensively: they will only appear in their premium models like Alfa Romeo. They plan to launch EMB on small and mid-sized cars and not on large vehicles, due to the higher savings potential with large volume production. Furthermore, complete platforms will be converted to EMB, as opposed to the piecemeal approach taken with EHB systems. However, delays in 42V and other technical issues are expected to restrain the market growth of EMB systems until the end of this decade. Singh suggests suppliers stay focused and flexible regarding their x-by-wire products. "This study shows that companies who fail to anticipate the changes in the market, and fail to adapt to them, will lose market share,” he says. “One company running the risk of doing so is Bosch. Bosch appears to be adamant regarding its brake-by-wire strategy, and is pushing for EHB without due consideration to the opportunities represented by EMB systems. If EMB is launched in 2005 successfully and volume suppliers pick it up as they say they will, Bosch could face the closure of its plants which churn out millions of hydraulic components used in conventional braking systems.” Further details on the product positioning of each x-by-wire technology and their growth forecasts, challenges, restraints and drivers are discussed in the report. Report Code: B015, Publication Date: December 2001 Background Frost & Sullivan is an international marketing consulting company that monitors a comprehensive spectrum of markets for trends, market measurements and strategies. This on-going research is utilised to complement a series of research publications to support industry participants with customised consulting needs. Interviews and free executive summaries are available to the press. For more information contact: Nikki Cole nikki.cole@frost.com T +44 (0) 20 7343 8325 F +44 (0) 20 7343 8380 http://frost.com http://pressroom.frost.com --------------------------------------------------------------------- If you would prefer not to receive further messages from this sender: 1. Click on the Reply button. 2. Replace the Subject field with the word REMOVE. 3. Click the Send button. You will receive one additional e-mail message confirming your removal.