DisplaySearch Forecasts 8% Decline in 2001 Flat Panel Display Revenues
AUSTIN, Texas--Oct. 31, 2001--DisplaySearch, the worldwide leader in flat panel display (FPD) market research and consulting, revealed in its latest "Quarterly Worldwide Flat Panel Display Forecast Report" that FPD revenues are expected to fall 8.2% in 2001 to $22.5 billion.The drop can be attributed to a 14.3% decline in 2001 TFT LCD revenues and a 6.1% decline in 2001 PMLCD revenues, offset by a 122.2% increase in PDP revenues. The TFT LCD revenue decline continues to be a result of dramatic price erosion caused by a significant over-supply brought about by excessive capital spending and lack of demand growth in most applications.
However, the weighted average LCD monitor module prices rose in October for the first time since January of 2000 and both weighted average notebook and LCD monitor module prices are expected to rise in November. The PMLCD revenue decline is primarily a result of slowdowns in the mobile phone and PDA markets caused by weak corporate and consumer spending and increased competition from active matrix displays.
The 140-page "Quarterly Worldwide Flat Panel Display Forecast Report" provides display shipments in units, revenues and ASPs for 35 applications and 24 display technologies by type (monochrome vs. color), panel size and resolution. Actual shipments and revenues are provided for Q2'01 with shipments and revenues forecasted through Q2'03. The report also provides shipments and revenues by technology and application for 1998-2000 (actuals) and 2001 to 2005 (forecast).
According to DisplaySearch Vice President Barry Young, "After three quarters of consecutive declines on a revenue basis, the FPD market is expected to rise 5% in Q3'01 and enjoy 21% CAGR from 2001 to 2005 reaching $49.3 billion.
"The 2005 forecast is significantly below our previous forecast, as the outlook for mobile phones has been radically reduced and the effects of the price reductions on large panels are fully absorbed. However, the outlook for this segment remains strong as FPDs become an essential part of our daily lives in mobile phones, PDAs, LCD monitors, TVs, automotive monitors and a wide range of other applications."
By technology, as shown in Table 1, a-Si TFT LCDs will experience negative growth through Q1'02 and begin its recovery in Q2'02. In 2002, a-Si TFT LCDs are projected to grow by 25.0% as prices increase. PMLCDs are not expected to recover in 2002 as the mobile phone market plateaus with growth limited to color displays, which will be shared between CSTN and TFT LCDs. PDPs and LTPS TFT LCDs will experience positive growth throughout 2001 and 2002, led by PDPs at 118.4% in 2001 and 47.7% in 2002.
Table 1: Y/Y FPD Revenue Growth By Technology
Q201 Q301 Q401 Q102 2001 2002
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
a-Si TFT LCDs -13.2% -27.4% -20.1% -3.7% -16.6% 25.0%
PMLCDs 42.7% 6.6% -21.1% -31.5% -6.1% -15.6%
PDPs 122.2% 119.7% 117.2% 114.8% 118.4% 47.7%
LTPS TFT LCDs 38.2% 45.7% 30.5% 78.3% 47.6% 63.1%
HTPS TFT LCDs 1.9% 0.4% -2.8% -4.8% -1.5% 6.8%
Others 23.7% 15.3% 12.2% 8.7% 14.4% 15.0%
Total Market 2.9% -14.2% -14.0% -5.8% -8.2% 17.8%
By application, as shown in Table 2, notebook PC display revenues will continue to suffer through the remainder of 2001, falling by 34.2% in Q2'01 and 42.3% for the year as demand does not respond to significantly lower prices.
Notebook PC displays are expected to rebound in 2002 but still fall below 1999 levels. Desktop monitor revenues are benefiting from rapid unit growth caused by significantly lower prices, resulting in an 8.5% display revenue increase in 2001.
Mobile phone unit shipments are expected to be down 13% in 2001 due to channel inventory issues, but display revenues will increase due to the penetration of color STN LCDs and AMLCDs. The PDP TV display market is surging as sales increase, boosted by lower prices and increased availability. The industrial market will slow in the second half of 2001 as a result of lower ASPs.
Table 2: Y/Y FPD Revenue Growth By Application Application Q201 Q301 Q401 Q102 2001 2002 ----------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ----- Notebook PC -34.2% -49.5% -48.5% -35.1% -42.3% 13.9% Desktop Monitor 10.8% -0.4% 4.6% 19.8% 8.5% 21.8% Mobile Telephone 119.3% 59.9% 28.0% -14.3% 33.0% -2.2% Industrial 7.4% 1.4% -13.4% 7.6% 0.1% 9.9% Plasma TV 291.5% 283.1% 274.8% 266.8% 278.6% 87.3% Other 10.7% -1.9% -0.5% 11.9% 4.8% 25.6% Total Market 2.9% -14.2% -14.0% -5.8% -8.2% 17.8%
DisplaySearch President Ross Young will discuss DisplaySearch's FPD market outlook at the upcoming FPD Expo Korea Market Seminar, co-sponsored by DisplaySearch and SEMI, in Seoul, Korea on Nov. 7. The "Quarterly Worldwide Flat Panel Display Forecast Report" reveals display shipments for 35 applications and 24 display technologies. It is priced from $3,995 to $4,995.
For more information on any DisplaySearch product or service, please contact DisplaySearch at TEL: 512/459-3126, FAX: 512/459-3127, e-mail: info@displaysearch.com or Web: www.displaysearch.com.