TRIZ Group Analysis Finds Hybrids Will be Automotive Powerplant of the Future

    DETROIT, Aug. 7 Hybrid systems combining gasoline engines
and electric motors will be the next-generation powertrains for the world's
vehicles, according to an analysis of technology evolution issued by The TRIZ
Group.
    Applying TRIZ methodology to the needs of automakers and the public, the
study finds that hybrid powertrains are likely to emerge as the successors to
today's internal combustion engines, rather than fuel cells, all-electric or
other alternate power sources.
    The analysis was made by The TRIZ Group, a Michigan-based consulting firm
specializing in breakthrough technology planning and development.  TRIZ
methodology, first implemented in Russia, is a sophisticated tool for product
development, problem solving and technology forecasting based on a complex
analysis of nearly 500,000 patented inventions.
    "Our research shows that automakers who invested heavily in electric-car
development may have lost valuable lead time for hybrid vehicles, while those
who invested in hybrids have gained a valuable competitive advantage and
market experience," said Norman Bodine, a TRIZ Group principal.
    "Both Toyota and Honda, which have had hybrids in the market for three
years, obviously reached the same conclusion as our TRIZ study," he noted.  "A
similar TRIZ study for General Motors might have saved it millions of dollars
and valuable time spent on electric-car development."
    The lead that Honda and Toyota have in hybrids is now four years and
climbing, he noted.  "They are gaining valuable field experience when volumes
are low and the cost of learning is low.  The longer other competitors wait,
the more likely they will have to do their learning when volumes are high and
mistakes are costly, both in dollars and in customer satisfaction."
    "All of this illustrates the critical importance of technology planning,
and how it can have a huge impact on the success of a product-based business,"
Bodine declared.  "It shows how vital it is that investments in technology be
made at the right time and in the right technology."
    "TRIZ gives management something they have needed for a long time, -- a
powerful tool that eliminates guesswork in technology forecasting, shows how
the technology in their business will evolve, and dramatically reduces risk in
investment decisions."