Car of the Future

Computers on board TRANSPORTATION: The car of the future will do everything but wash your dishes.

January 25, 2001

By HEATHER LOURIE The Orange County Register

This is a great story that first appeared in The Orange County Register...thank you.

The overpowering craving for prime rib struck Thomas Kirk as he cruised through Las Vegas. He wanted to dine at the Gold Coast Hotel but didn't have a reservation.

Then he remembered his car came equipped with a concierge via cell phone.

At first he didn't think it would work. But he pushed the small blue button on his overhead console anyway. Within 10 minutes, he had a table for two.

"It's amazing," said Kirk, 61, a retired construction worker. "If you are lost or need directions, they are right there."

Kirk, of La Habra, is just the type of person automobile giants such as General Motors and Mercedes-Benz are looking for as they load cars with everything from voice-activated e-mail to Global Positioning System (GPS) technology that can pinpoint the location of an accident.

The emerging telematics market - the integration of wireless networks and location-based technologies -- is expected to grow from $2.3 billion this year to $19 billion in 2005, according to a recent Dain Rauscher Wessels report.

Nowhere are these gadgets more important than in Southern California, and particularly Orange County, where motorists spend an average of 74 minutes each day commuting to and from work in their cars.

"Ultimately it leads to different ways of saving time and reducing accidents," said Harry Voccola, chairman of the California Alliance for Advanced Transportation Systems.

In Orange County, companies are lining up to offer these products. They include Anaheim-based Iteris, which provides software and sensor technologies, and Cue Corp. of Irvine, which delivers route-specific traffic information to cars through FM radios. Even the county's transportation agency is getting into the business, with a computer server that will eventually deliver real-time traffic information to wireless devices.

"The automobile is becoming more and more like the cockpit of a sophisticated military device," said Noah Rifkin, former science and technology adviser to Federico Peña, former Department of Transportation secretary. "It has a lot of possibilities."

THE TECHNOLOGY

Telematics, only 5 years old in the U.S., started primarily with safety and security devices.

Most current systems include:

Automatic collision notification: If your air bags deploy, sensors in the car notify a remote dispatch center where live operators can help assess injuries and notify emergency crews.

Location-based roadside assistance: If you run out of gas and don't know where you are, the GPS satellite network can track your whereabouts, and a live operator can send a tow truck. The device can also help police track a stolen car.

Concierge help: Live operators, reached via cell phones mounted on car dashboards or ceiling consoles, can make restaurant reservations or provide routing information. "For the customer, it's a safety and security purchase, much like the early cell phones," said Gary Wallace, spokesman for ATX Technologies, a provider of Mercedes-Benz's Tele Aid system. "Each one of the services will become more sophisticated in time."

General Motors' OnStar system is now standard or included as an option package on 32 of 54 cars. Mercedes-Benz, Jaguar, BMW, Infiniti and Lincoln all have similar systems.

Yet the market, while growing each year, is still small. Fewer than 1 percent of the 220 million cars on the road in North America have telematics-equipped capabilities, experts say. And less than 50,000 devices have been sold through the aftermarket.

"Every car company, even electronic companies, have made major investments (in this)," Voccola said. "But this is an industry in its infancy."

More awareness, through advertising and an emphasis on safety, will drive the demand, he said. And for the car companies, that could mean future revenue and customer loyalty.

SAFETY

According to the Society of Automotive Engineers, 25 percent to 52 percent of car accidents are caused by driver distraction -- diversions sometimes caused by "information-age technologies."

Therefore, it's not surprising that "driver distraction" has become the new buzzword in the telematics industry -- especially at a time when a number of cities are trying to ban the use of cell phones while driving. It's unknown how much internal and external information drivers can safely process while operating a vehicle, SAE officials said.

Critics say it's only a matter of time before dashboard PCs, complicated navigation screens and "infotainment" devices increase car wrecks. They worry that people will be lulled into thinking the car can drive itself.

"People still need to pay attention to the road," said Stephanie Faul, spokeswoman for AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety in Washington, D.C. "If you are listening to your e-mail and checking a stock, who is in control of the car anymore?"

Steve Kohler, a spokesman for the California Highway Patrol, agreed.

"All of those things whittle your attention. There's no doubt about it," he said. "There certainly has to be limits when one of the things you are doing requires direct life-and-death actions."

Chet Huber, OnStar's president, called his company's voice-activated e-mail system and one-touch buttons "an absolutely appropriate way to architect services coming into cars." However, he said, his company will continue to do research and be cautious because "we don't want to overload the driver."

Car companies, sensitive to the issue, have launched research and education programs to identify how much technology can be safely introduced into a car.

In October, GM unveiled a $10 million, multi-year SenseAble Driving program to look at driver-distraction issues. This spring, the Ford Motor Co. will finish building a $10 million simulator at its research laboratory in Dearborn, Mich., to test driver behavior. The Society of Automotive Engineers is developing standards for the industry.

"When you are driving a car, you have just as much responsibility as a pilot taxiing down a runway," said Roger King, a spokesman for the Intelligent Transportation Society of America. "We want to see that technology is used to overcome driver distraction and not contribute to it."

THE FUTURE

Life on the road is headed for more change. In the next one to five years, analysts say, cars will talk back to you and allow you to make purchases without leaving your seat. Someday, cars may drive themselves.

The next phase of on-board navigation systems and voice-activated gadgets is not far away -- maybe just a year or two. Companies across the country are looking for ways to repackage government-collected traffic information -- such as freeway accidents and SigAlerts -- and transmit it to cars.

The Orange County Transportation Authority recently launched a traveler-information program that will put real-time traffic information on a Web site. The agency is working with private companies to take it to the next step.

"The vision for the industry is to do dynamic routing," said Rifkin. Companies that can merge this type of data will be the big winners.