Sprint Cup - Blazing Keselowski Closes On Improbable Top-10 Ranking

Daytona, August 31, 2011: Six races ago Brad Keselowski was 23rd in NASCAR Sprint Cup Series standings, 95 points behind 10th-place Denny Hamlin and holding a victory that might have been worthless had he stayed outside of the top 20 in the standings.

Heading to Atlanta Motor Speedway for Sunday’s AdvoCare 500, Keselowski is on the cusp of accomplishing the improbable if not downright impossible.

His third victory of the season last weekend at Bristol Motor Speedway gives Keselowski a near lock on one of two wild card spots in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, which begins Sept. 18 at Chicagoland Speedway.

By stringing wins at Pocono and Bristol among four consecutive top-three finishes in the past four races, the 27-year-old Michigan native has erased all but 21 points of his post-New Hampshire deficit. He’s closing on the top 10 – and an automatic Chase berth – at the rate of 19 points per race beginning with a ninth-place performance in the Brickyard 400.

The Top-10 Picture: Locking up a place in the postseason is every athlete’s dream – especially if it’s done early. Five drivers accomplished that goal at Bristol Motor Speedway, locking up one of 10 guaranteed positions in this season’s Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.

Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards and Kevin Harvick comprise the Fortunate Five. Each was part of last year’s Chase. Johnson, bidding for his sixth consecutive NASCAR Sprint Cup title, is the only driver to qualify for all eight Chases since the championship format was adopted in 2004.

Though unlikely, the rest of the top-10 spots can mathematically be clinched in Atlanta. Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman and Kurt Busch – winner of the 2004 title in the first season of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup – are the most likely candidates. All three control their own destiny.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Tony Stewart, ninth and 10th, remain on the bubble. Earnhardt is 39 points to the good while Stewart leads 11th place Keselowski and 12th place Clint Bowyer by 21 and 22 points, respectively.

And Then They Reset: Point position is important but the big picture, at least when the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup begins, are bonus points that determine seeding. Each win by a top-10 driver qualifying for the Chase is worth three points and will be added to a base of 2,000 points following next week’s Race to the Chase finale at Richmond International Raceway.

With six more points available – three at Atlanta, three at Richmond – Busch is the provisional No. 1 seed with four wins. Harvick has won three times; Kenseth two. Gordon, should he clinch a top-10 spot, is the only other multiple winner.

The Wild, Wild (Card) East: The bad news for Keselowski should he fall short of the top 10 and qualify for his first Chase as a wild card driver is he’ll forfeit a potential nine points – his three wins – since wild card entrants don’t get bonus points in the re-seeding.

The wild card picture, however, gets wilder if the Penske Racing driver knocks down the top-10 door.

Denny Hamlin, with his victory in June’s race at Michigan, would be the first wild card (and second if Keselowski remains outside the top 10). Hamlin, last year’s runner up to Johnson, ranks 13th.

Should only one winner among the top 20 be eligible, the best-placed non-winner in the standings would gain the final wild card. Right now that would be Bowyer.

Sprint Summer Showdown Throws Down: Four drivers – Marcos Ambrose, Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski and Paul Menard – have qualified for Sunday’s Sprint Summer Showdown Presented by HTC EVO™ 3D. Now it remains to be seen if one of the four can win the AdvoCare 500 and claim the $3 million bonus to be split equally among driver, driver’s charity and a lucky fan. Keselowski will be racing for two fans, who would receive $500,000 each.