NASCAR NNCS (BROOKLYN) - IN THE LOOP
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Covering every angle and including a number of statistics, NASCAR’s Driver Rating has proven incredibly consistent as a means of predicting solid finishes at a given track.
For instance, Tony Stewart had the top pre-race Driver Rating at Watkins Glen going into last Sunday’s race (140.1). He won that race, making it three victories in the last four races.
The week prior to that at Pocono Raceway, Kurt Busch dominated the Pennsylvania 500, leading 175 of the 200 laps. Going into the race, Busch had the second-best Driver Rating (109.9). Denny Hamlin, with two wins last season at Pocono, had the top pre-race Pocono Driver Rating – he finished third.
And three weeks ago at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Stewart kissed the bricks for the second time in his career. The Indiana native had a pre-race Driver Rating of 109.2, which was second-best.
All told, the winner of the 22 races this season had a pre-race Driver Rating in the top five 11 times.
Beyond that, the race winner had a pre-race Driver Rating in the top three 10 times this season.
Below is a look at the 11 race winners who had a pre-race Driver Rating in the top 10:
Race
Winner
Pre-Race Driver Rating
Pre-Race Driver Rating Rank
California 1
Matt Kenseth
110.1
1
Las Vegas
Jimmie Johnson
131.4
1
Watkins Glen
Tony Stewart
140.1
1
Atlanta 1
Jimmie Johnson
112.0
2
New Hampshire 1
Denny Hamlin
106.8
2
Indianapolis
Tony Stewart
109.2
2
Pocono 2
Kurt Busch
109.9
2
Martinsville 1
Jimmie Johnson
116.0
3
Talladega 1
Jeff Gordon
97.1
3
Michigan 1
Carl Edwards
109.8
3
Darlington
Jeff Gordon
112.4
4
(Note: Driver Rating is calculated using a formula combining these categories: Wins, Finishes, Top-15 Finishes, Average Running Position While On Lead Lap, Average Speed Under Green, Fastest Laps, Most Laps Led and Lead-Lap Finishes. Maximum 150 points per race.)
If the trend continues, look for Roush Fenway Racing to have a strong 3M Performance 400 at Michigan International Speedway this weekend.
The stable occupies the top-three positions in the pre-race Driver Rating. Below are the top-five drivers in pre-race Driver Rating, along with their career statistics at MIS:
Driver
Driver Rating
Starts
Wins
Top 5s
Top 10s
1. Carl Edwards
114.2
6
1
4
5
2. Greg Biffle
109.9
9
2
4
6
3. Matt Kenseth
101.4
16
2
6
10
4. Jimmie Johnson
100.6
11
0
1
4
5. Kurt Busch
100.1
13
1
1
5
In June, Edwards added his name to the list of race winners with a pre-race Driver Rating in the top five, winning at Michigan International Speedway with a third-best pre-race Driver Rating of 109.8.
Below are Edwards’ Michigan statistics, along with where he ranks in each category:
Carl Edwards (2005-2007) Driver Rating: 114.2 (1st) Average Running Position: 7.6 (1st) Fastest Laps Run: 74 (2nd) Laps in the Top 15: 806 (1st) Quality Passes*: 274 (1st)
* – Quality Passes are passes of cars in the top 15 under green flag conditions.