New forecasting technique rates industry segments LOOKING AT the same market from a new angle can produce more accurate market assessments, according to the Automotive Parts & Accessories Association, which introduced a new forecasting method at recent committee meetings.
The new method was created by Dr. Siddharta Chib, a professor of econometrics and statistics at Washington University. It uses previous forecasts from 1995 and 1996 to make the 1997 forecasts, which results in a projection with a margin of error less than one percent.
By targeting various segments of the market, the forecast tracks specific segments. For instance, the model indicates a slowing of growth for the service repair, lubricant and parts and accessory markets. Conversely, the study indicated increased growth for the tire and tube market.
"This was exactly the type of presentation the aftermarket really needed," says Ron Rossi of Moog Automotive and chairman of APAA's Market Research Committee. "Many who heard the presentation said the results seemed too good to be true, and wondered, 'How did he do that?'"
In anticipation of a strong interest in this data, APAA is sending a copy to each member company. APAA is also looking for a way to offer the information on a continuing basis.
"With a presentation like this only two things can go wrong," adds Rossi. "Either the data input is incorrect, or the mathematical technique could be wrong, but neither is the case here. The data is perfect, the analysis is strong, which results in a near perfect process."
APAA is based in Bethesda, MD, and has 1,600 member companies representing all segments of the aftermarket.
Court dismisses associations' lawsuit on OBD access case GETTING ACCESS to onboard diagnostics by the aftermarket must seem like pulling teeth, after the recent ruling by the U.S. District Court of Columbia, which dismissed a lawsuit brought by eight trade associations representing the independent vehicle aftermarket.
The District Court ruled that it was not the venue to hear the case, and insisted that the U.S. Court of Appeals was the correct site. The suit in question challenged the actions undertaken by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to restrict access to onboard diagnostic systems (OBD II), which was required under the Clean Air Act.
The decision was based on jurisdictional concerns and not on the merits of the issues raised by the aftermarket, so it was not a total disappointment for the aftermarket. The eight associations involved in the litigation include: The Coalition for Automotive Repair Equity (CARE), Automotive Engine Rebuilders Assooci-ation (AERA), Automotive Parts Re-builders Association (APRA), Automotive Parts and Accessories Association (APAA), Automotive Service Industry Association (ASIA), Automotive Ware-house Distributors Association (AWDA), Motor Equipment Manufacturers Asso-ciation (MEMA), and the Specialty Equipment Market Association (SEMA).
The aftermarket groups stated that the certification for sale by EPA and CARB of OBD II systems that are equipped with anti-tampering measurers violated the provision of the Clean Air Act, which requires that access to OBD system be unrestricted. Access is critical for providing service to late-model vehicles and in developing aftermarket parts that are compatible with the vehicles' sophisticated monitoring system. The associations intend to appeal the District Court's ruling.
This legal action by the aftermarket is just part of the proactive stance take by the associations. They have two other OBD II-related lawsuits, which have been filed in the U.S. Court of Appeals. These have not been affected by the lower Court's dismissal and are proceeding.
These petitions contend that the EPA erred by granting a waiver from Federal preemption for California OBD standards containing anti-tampering requirements, which was a direct violation of the Clean Air Act.
The petitions further contend that the Agency disregarded the Clean Air Act by permitting sales of vehicles meeting the anti-competitive California OBD II standards for sale nationwide. The oral arguments in these appeals will take place in January.
