Alternative Fuel Update
9 October 2000
Detroit - There's a lot of talk about alternative fuels and hybrid cars but
the immediate future for these types of vehicles does not look very
promising. BPAmoco and General Motors went out of their way last week to
talk about a number of joint projects the two are working on surrounding
alternative fuels.
Actually, the one that they admit shows the most promise in the short term
is not an alternative fuel at all, but rather a different version of the
most common automotive fuel, low-sulfur gasoline. BPAmoco has begun to
produce low-sulfur gasoline, which is viewed by automakers as the quickest
and easiest way to meet new EPA emission regs referred to as Tier II. Tier
II requires automakers to manufacture cars that emit no more than .07 gram
of oxides of nitrogen per mile by 2004. SUV's, minivans and light trucks
below 6000 pounds are phased in to that standard between 2004 and 2007.
Heavier vehicles, like the Ford Excursion, are limited to .6 gram in 2004,
but must meet the .07 gram standard by 2008. Low sulfur gasoline allows
catalytic converters to work more efficiently and is said to result in a
reduction of nitrous oxides and hydrocarbons by as much as 98%. GM, like
most other automakers is also working on direct injection, seen as a fairly
simple way to improve combustion, thus improving fuel economy and reducing
hydrocarbons even further.
Hopes for electric cars and even hybrids are being dashed as automakers are
hard pressed to reduce the high purchase price and maintenance costs of
these vehicles. Batteries are the main problem. Their cost is high and
they require maintenance and constant recharging, which can get expensive.
There is also a high disposal cost. The only scenario that makes electric
cars viable for the masses is to envision the employee parking lot where
you work or the mall parking lot where you shop looking like yesterday's
drive-in movie lot, with a battery charger located adjacent to every space.
The charger, of course, will have a meter, activated perhaps by a credit
card or EasyPass. With this infrastructure in place, electric cars might
become a more viable replacement for the internal combustion engine.
However, even California, where the drive for alternative fuel vehicles has
been the greatest, is not ready for electric vehicles. The state's electric
power generation capabilities were taxed to their limit three weeks ago
during unseasonally hot temperatures. Add tens of thousands of electric
vehicles plugged in for a recharge and the California system would have
been on its knees. Rob Stevens, president of Ford Motor Co.'s "Think"
electric car unit says his company will begin selling the Norwegian-made,
plastic-bodied Think electric car here in 2002, but he doesn't expect to
sell many of them. Stevens says the company has only managed to sell a few
hundred of the vehicles in Europe and he thinks sticker shock will keep
most U.S. buyers away. Ford is said to be importing a small fleet of the
all-electrics that will be available for rent through Hertz in San Francisco.
