Auto Makers Forecast Sales for 1997

01/06/97

Xinhua reported that Detroit's Big Three carmakers predicted results for 1997, and their consensus says that, in 1997, the industry will continue the strong and stable trend it exhibited throughout 1996.

Alex Trotman, chairman, chief executive officer, and president of Ford forecast that overall industry-wide sales will reach 15 million to 15.5 million units in 1997, including passenger cars, pickups, sport utility vehicles, mini-vans and heavy trucks.

GM and Chrysler both echoed Ford's forecast, based on the assumptions that unemployment and inflation rates would remain low and that the American economy would continue to produce jobs at a brisk pace.

Those are big assumptions though, and auto execs and economists point out that the auto market is very sensitive to the performance of the overall economy. A recent New York Times report said, "for decades, few industries have been as cyclical as the automobile business, with sales soaring in good times and plunging so deeply in bad times that the very survival of some auto makers has been threatened."

The automakers said that there's always a threat of economic turbulence caused by unpredictable events. Speaking about the outlook over a longer term, Ford's Trotman said, "I expect there will be, in the next five years, a downturn."

Paul Dever -- The Auto Channel