PREDICTIONS: 1996

by Tony Sakkis

    Several weeks ago, I implied I could do a better job at picking 
racing series winners than the staff of Car And Driver magazine. Now, 
it's time to put my money where my mouth is.
    I should caution my readers that the Leland Rowton phenomenon is in 
effect at this point. The Leland Rowton effect is named after a 
childhood friend who used to say, "...look at me," then totally forget 
what he had practiced for so long, falling off his bike, off the diving 
board, into the mud, etc..
    Keeping in mind that phenomenon, here are my predictions for 1996:
    INDYCARS - Only one thing is certain in IndyCar racing this year -- 
which is that nothing is certain except that it will be exciting to 
watch.
    You have to like the Penske drivers Al Unser Jr. and Paul Tracy, but 
there is so much deep talent in this series it's hard to make a 
prediction in terms of greatest success.
    There should be some good moments. The new Comptech team, with 
Parker Johnstone, should win a race; World Championship Grand Prix 
motorcycle racer Eddie Lawson probably won't win, but should be a good 
addition. So should Dan Gurney's Toyotas.
    In terms of champions, look for Michael Andretti to make a run 
early, and to be followed by Unser and Tracy and a contingent of tough 
young drivers like Mauricio Gugelmin (whom should finally win one this 
year), Christian Fittipaldi and Scott Pruett to challenge for the 
championship.
    INDY RACING LEAGUE - Contrary to what you have heard, the series 
will be neither a success nor a flop. It will have a decent audience the 
first race and may pick up some viewers at Phoenix for the second, but 
will begin to wane after that. Indianapolis will be a joke, no question.
    Who will win? Arie Luyendyk or Roberto Guerrero. Only a handful have
the talent. Luyendyk, Guerrero, Michele Alboreto, Eddie Cheever and 
Davey Hamilton will win the lion's share of points. All good drivers, no 
doubt, but the entire series rests on their shoulders and on the 
potential of a couple of other decent rookies. By the end of the year, 
it will be clear that it is truly a second rate series, but it will be 
far from a failure.
    FORMULA ONE - Michael Schumacher has effectively neutered himself by 
moving from Ferrari. Look for the German to put the new 412T2 on the 
pole in a lot of occasions and to lead and actually win races. But 
although Schumacher and Ferrari are a World Championship partnership, I 
just wonder, can the German survive within this, the most Latin of 
environment?
    In pure speed, The Williams is still the car to beat. And at 
Williams, Jacques Villeneuve joins Damon Hill, and that's where the 
championship will return this year -- to Williams. Villeneuve could take 
the championship in his first season. If not Villeneuve, then Hill -- 
finally.
    WINSTON CUP - Is it the end of an era? Has Dale Earnhardt passed the 
torch. You kidding? Jeff Gordon's success in the championship doesn't 
come as Earnhardt's career is winding down. On the contrary, Earnhardt 
is probably sitting at home still fuming. Look for the Intimidator to 
come out strong, perhaps even winning the Daytona 500 this season, and 
then make a good run for the championship. Competition is tighter and 
more drivers have a chance to win, but it will likely be a fight between 
Earnhardt and Gordon with Sterling Marlin, Mark Martin and Rusty Wallace 
trying to edge each out of the top two spots.
    So stick around for a year and we'll see how I do. And if I'm wrong, 
please wait 30 years before you broadcast the fact. That's how long I 
let those Car and Driver predictions for '66 'mature' before I brought 
them up.