J.D. Power and LMC Automotive Report: June New-Vehicle Retail Sales Strongest For the Month in a Decade

WESTLAKE VILLAGE, CA -- June 25, 2015: U.S. new-vehicle retail sales in June and the retail seasonally adjusted annualized selling rate (SAAR) are expected to reach their highest levels for the month since 2005, according to a monthly sales forecast from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive.

Retail Light-Vehicle Sales
The forecast for new-vehicle retail sales in June 2015 is 1,169,600 units, a 1 percent increase on a selling-day adjusted basis compared with June 2014 and the highest retail sales volume for the month since June 2005, when sales hit 1,350,004. Retail transactions are the most accurate measure of consumer demand for new vehicles.

The new-vehicle retail seasonally adjusted annualized selling rate (SAAR) in June is expected to be 13.6 million units, an increase of nearly 400,000 units from June 2014 and the strongest June selling rate in a decade. The SAAR in June 2005 was 14.9 million.

"The industry continues to outperform prior-year levels with respect to retail sales and transaction prices," said John Humphrey, senior vice president of the global automotive practice at J.D. Power. "June is on pace to complete the strongest first half of the year since 2002." Retail sales through the first half of 2015 are projected to reach 6,771,000.

The average new-vehicle retail transaction price so far in June is $30,452, poised to achieve a new record for the month, according to the Power Information Network (PIN) from J.D. Power. The previous record was set in June 2014 when retail transaction prices averaged $29,813.

The combination of strong sales and high transaction prices has June on record pace for consumer spending on new vehicles for the month at approximately $35.6 billion, $2.5 billion more than the level achieved in June 2014. In the first half of 2015, consumers will have spent $206.2 billion on new vehicles, $11.6 billion more than the previous record set in 2014 when spending reached $194.7 billion.

Total Light-Vehicle Sales
Total light-vehicle sales in June 2015 are projected to reach 1,479,200, essentially flat on a selling-day adjusted basis compared with June 2014. Fleet volume in June is expected to reach 309,600 units, but fleet share falls slightly in the month to 21 percent of total sales, from 22 percent a year ago.

J.D. Power and LMC Automotive U.S. Sales and SAAR Comparisons

	June 2015¹	May 2015	June 2014
New-Vehicle Retail Sales	1,169,600 units (1% higher than June 2014)²	1,334,120 units	1,109,488 units
Total Vehicle Sales	1,479,200 units (0.1% higher than June 2014)²	1,632,354 units	1,418,520 units
Retail SAAR	13.6 million units	14.5 million units	13.3 million units
Total SAAR	17.2 million units	17.7 million units	16.9 million units


¹Figures cited for June 2015 are forecasted based on the first 17 selling days of the month.
²The percentage change is adjusted based on the number of selling days in the month (25 days in June 2015 vs. 24 days in June 2014).

Sales Outlook
In response to the significant boost from May's sales volume, LMC Automotive is raising its total light-vehicle sales forecast for the year to 17.1 million units from 17.0 million units. The retail light-vehicle forecast remains 13.9 million units for the year, an increase of 3 percent from 2014.

"Don't let the lower year-over-year percent change fool you; this is arguably the strongest and healthiest the auto industry has been in a very long time," said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive. "A green light outlook across a basket of metrics—including economic support, gas prices, the stock market, higher and stable transaction prices and significant product activity—is behind our forecast of a 17.1 million unit pace in the second half of 2015."

North American Production
North America production in May 2015 reached 1.49 million units, the same as in May 2014 and April 2015, while production for the year through May has increased 2 percent compared with the same period last year. Given the rapid sales pace in May 2015, manufacturers were able to clear a significant amount of inventory, as June began with a 56-day supply, down from 65 days at the start of May and 60 days in June 2014.

LMC Automotive's production forecast for 2015 also remains at 17.5 million units, a 500,000 unit increase compared with 2014. Midsize vehicles (cars and trucks) will account for the largest portion of the production output (39%). Small vehicles, even with low gas prices, are expected to reach 8 percent of the production share, a 1 percentage point gain compared with 2014. Given its low costs and numerous free trade agreements that enable exports, Mexico is the largest producer of small vehicles in the region, expecting to account for nearly three-fourths of all small-vehicle production in 2015.