Economic Growth to Continue Throughout 2015

Manufacturing Growth Continues in 2015; Revenue to Increase 3.5%;

Capital Expenditure to Increase 3.1%;

Capacity Utilization Currently at 79.5%;

Non-Manufacturing Growth Also Continues in 2015;

Revenue to Increase 2.9%;

Capital Expenditure to Increase 1.5%;

Capacity Utilization Currently at 86%

TEMPE, AZ -- May 6, 2015: Economic growth is expected to continue in the United States throughout the remainder of 2015, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in their Spring 2015 Semiannual Economic Forecast. Expectations for the remainder of 2015 continue to be positive in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.

These projections are part of the forecast issued by the Business Survey Committee of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®). The forecast was presented today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and by Anthony S. Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

Manufacturing Summary
Fifty-five percent of respondents from the panel of manufacturing supply management executives predict their revenues will be 9 percent greater in 2015 compared to 2014, 16 percent expect an 8.9 percent decline, and 29 percent foresee no change in revenue. This yields an overall average expectation of 3.5 percent revenue growth among manufacturers in 2015, which is a meaningful decrease of 2.1 percentage points from December 2014 when the panel predicted a 5.6 percent increase in 2015 revenues. With operating capacity at 79.5 percent, an expected capital expenditure increase of 3.1 percent, prices paid for raw materials expected to decrease a 0.9 percentage point for all of 2015 compared to 2014, and employment expected to grow 0.7 percent for the balance of 2015, manufacturing is positioned to grow revenues while containing costs through the remainder of the year. "With 14 of the 18 industries within the manufacturing sector predicting revenue growth in 2015 when compared to 2014, U.S. manufacturing continues to move in a positive direction," said Holcomb.

The 14 industries reporting expectations of growth in revenue for 2015 — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Textile Mills; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment.

Non-Manufacturing Summary
Fifty-four percent of non-manufacturing purchasing and supply executives expect their 2015 revenues to be greater by 8.9 percent than in 2014. Overall, respondents currently expect a 2.9 percent net increase in overall revenues, which is less than the 10 percent increase that was forecast in December 2014. "Non-manufacturing will continue to grow for the balance of 2015. Non-manufacturing companies continue to operate very efficiently as reflected by the high percentage of capacity utilization. Supply managers have indicated that overall costs have been minimally impacted with pricing projected to increase 0.6 percent over the year. Overall employment is projected to grow a modest 2 percent. Thirteen out of 18 industries are forecasting increased revenues which is less than the 17 industries that forecasted increased revenues last year.  Despite a cooling off in the rate of growth, the non-manufacturing sector will continue on the path of economic growth throughout the year," Nieves said.

The 13 non-manufacturing industries expecting increases in revenue in 2015 — listed in order — are:  Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Public Administration; and Educational Services.

OPERATING RATE

Manufacturing
Purchasing and supply managers report that their companies are currently operating on average at 79.5 percent of normal capacity, representing a decrease from the 83.7 percent reported in December 2014, as well as a decrease from the 82.3 percent reported in April 2014. The 12 industries reporting operating capacity levels at or above the average capacity of 79.5 percent — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Primary Metals.

Non-Manufacturing
Non-manufacturing purchasing and supply executives report that their organizations are currently operating at 86 percent of normal capacity. This is 1.6 percent less than what was reported in December 2014 and less than the 86.3 percent reported in April 2014. The following nine industries operating at capacity levels above the average rate of 86 percent — listed in order — are:   Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; Information; Utilities; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Public Administration; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Finance & Insurance.

PRODUCTION CAPACITY

Manufacturing
Production capacity in manufacturing is expected to increase 3.4 percent in 2015. This increase is less than the 5.6 percent increase predicted in December 2014 for 2015, and also less than the 5.3 percent increase reported in December for all of 2014. This nevertheless reflects the continuing strength in the sector as 42 percent of respondents expect an average capacity increase of 10.7 percent, 9 percent expect decreases averaging 13.5 percent, and 49 percent expect no change. The 13 industries expecting production capacity increases for 2015 — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Textile Mills; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Primary Metals.

Non-Manufacturing
The capacity to produce products or provide services in the non-manufacturing sector is expected to increase 2.6 percent during 2015. This compares to an increase of 3.6 percent reported for 2014 and a prediction in December 2014 for an increase of 4.3 percent for 2015. For 2015, 23 percent of non-manufacturing respondents expect their capacity to increase by an average of 14 percent, and 6 percent of the respondents foresee their capacity decreasing by an average of 11 percent. Seventy-one percent expect no change in their capacity. The nine industries expecting to add to their production capacity in 2015 — listed in order — are:   Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; Information; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Other Services.

PREDICTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURES — 2015 vs. 2014

Manufacturing
Survey respondents expect a 3.1 percent increase in capital expenditures in 2015. This is less than the December 2014 forecast when the panel predicted an increase of 3.7 percent for 2015. Currently, 29 percent of respondents predict increased capital expenditures in 2015, with an average increase of 31 percent, and the 20 percent who said their capital spending would decrease an average of 30.2 percent. Fifty-one percent say they will spend the same in 2015 as they did in 2014. The nine industries expecting increases in capital expenditures in 2015 compared to 2014 — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

Non-Manufacturing
Non-manufacturing purchasing and supply executives are expecting to increase their level of capital expenditures 1.5 percent in 2015 compared to 2014. The 34 percent of members expecting to spend more predict an average increase of 16.9 percent. Sixteen percent of respondents anticipate a decrease averaging 26.7 percent. Fifty percent of the respondents expect to spend the same on capital expenditures in 2015 as in 2014. The eight industries expecting an increase in capital expenditures in 2015 from 2014 — listed in order — are:  Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; and Management of Companies & Support Services.

PRICES — Changes Between End of 2014 and April 2015

Manufacturing
In the December 2014 forecast, respondents predicted an increase of 1.2 percent in prices paid during the first four months of 2015; and they now report prices have decreased by 1.9 percent for the period. The 19 percent who say their prices are higher now than at the end of 2014 report an average increase of 3.8 percent, while the 42 percent who report lower prices report an average decrease of 6.3 percent. The remaining 39 percent indicate no change for the period. Of the 18 manufacturing industries, only one industry, Nonmetallic Mineral Products, reported increases in prices paid for the first part of 2015.

Non-Manufacturing
Non-Manufacturing respondents report that their purchases in the first four months of this year cost an average of 1 percent more than they cost at the end of 2014. This is 0.8 percentage point lower than the 1.8 percent increase predicted in December 2014 for the first four months of 2015. Forty-six percent of the non-manufacturing respondents report the prices they paid increased an average of 5.3 percent in the first part of 2015. Fifteen percent report price decreases averaging 9.1 percent. The remaining 39 percent indicate no change in prices paid in the first four months of 2015. The 14 industries reporting an increase in prices paid in the first part of 2015 — listed in order — are:  Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; Construction; Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Management of Companies & Support Services.

PRICES — Predicted Changes Between End of 2014 and End of 2015

Manufacturing
When asked to predict 2015 price changes, 31 percent of respondents expect the prices they pay to increase by 4 percent for the full year of 2015 compared to the end of 2014. At the same time, 35 percent anticipate decreases averaging 6.1 percent. Including the 34 percent who expect no change in prices, survey respondents expect net average prices to decrease by 0.9 percent for the entire year of 2015, indicating that prices are expected to rise 1 percentage point for the remainder of the year. Out of 18 manufacturing industries, six are predicting increases in prices for all of 2015 in the following order: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Non-Manufacturing
For 2015, non-manufacturing respondents expect the prices they pay to increase 0.6 percentage point when compared to the prices at the end of 2014. Given that respondents have reported that prices have increased 1 percent through April 2015, the prediction is for prices to increase 0.6 percentage point over the remainder of the year. Fifty-two percent of the respondents anticipate price increases averaging 3.8 percent. Fourteen percent of the respondents expect price decreases of 9.9 percent, and 34 percent do not expect prices to change. The 15 industries expecting price increases in 2015 — listed in order — are:   Other Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Construction; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; Retail Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; and Educational Services.

EMPLOYMENT

Change in Overall Employment – Balance 2015

Manufacturing
ISM's Manufacturing Business Survey respondents forecast that manufacturing employment will increase 0.7 percent during the balance of 2015, with 33 percent expecting employment to be 5.4 percent higher. Fifteen percent of respondents predict employment to be lower by 7.1 percent. The remaining 52 percent of respondents expect their employment levels to be unchanged for the remainder of 2015. The 11 industries reporting expectations of growth in employment during the year — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Machinery; and Computer & Electronic Products.

Non-Manufacturing
ISM's Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents forecast that employment will increase 2 percent during the balance of 2015. For the remaining months of 2015, 33 percent expect employment to increase 7.6 percent, 9 percent anticipate employment to decrease by 6.1 percent, and 58 percent expect their employment levels to be unchanged. The 14 industries anticipating increases in employment in the remaining months of 2015 — listed in order — are:  Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; Public Administration; Management of Companies & Support Services; Other Services; Information; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.

BUSINESS REVENUES

Business Revenues Comparison — 2015 vs. 2014

Manufacturing
Looking ahead, expectations are for increased revenues in 2015 as purchasing and supply management executives indicate an overall net increase of 3.5 percent in business revenues for 2015 over 2014. This is 2.1 percentage point lower than the 5.6 percent increase that was forecast in December 2014 for all of 2015, and 0.1 percentage point lower than the 3.6 percent increase reported for 2014 over 2013. Fifty-five percent of respondents say that revenues (before adjusting for inflation) for 2015 will increase an average of 9 percent over 2014. Conversely, 16 percent say their revenues will decrease an average of 8.9 percent, and the remaining 29 percent indicate no change. Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 14 are reporting expectations of growth in revenue during the year — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Textile Mills; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment.

Non-Manufacturing
Non-manufacturing respondents forecast that business revenues for 2015 will increase 2.9 percent compared to 2014. This is lower than the 10 percent increase predicted in December 2014 for 2015. The 54 percent of respondents forecasting better business in 2015 than in 2014 estimate an average revenue increase of 8.9 percent. This is in contrast to an average decrease of 16.8 percent forecast by the 11 percent who predict less business in 2015. The remaining 35 percent see no change in revenues for 2015. The 13 industries expecting an increase in revenues in 2015 — listed in order — are:   Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Public Administration; and Educational Services.

SPECIAL QUESTIONS RELATED TO THE EARLY MONTHS OF 2015
The West Coast port slowdowns in the early part of 2015 and the significant drop in oil prices impacted many businesses. We asked the panels to tell us whether or not these two situations have impacted their particular businesses, and if so, to tell us the nature of those impacts.

Manufacturing
With respect to the West Coast port slowdown in the early months of 2015, we asked the manufacturing panel to comment on whether their particular businesses were impacted, and if so, whether the impact was short term (impact cleared within a few months) or long term (having a lasting effect on most of the year). Of the total responses compiled, 38.7 percent said their businesses were not impacted, 47.7 percent indicated a short term impact, 9 percent indicated a long term impact, and 4.5 percent were unsure.

When asked about the net annual impact of the fluctuating price of oil and related commodities, 14.5 percent of respondents indicated a negative net impact to their businesses, 41 percent indicated a positive net impact, 33.5 percent indicated a negligible impact, and 11 percent of respondents were unsure.

Non-Manufacturing
We also asked the non-manufacturing panel to comment on whether their particular businesses were impacted, and if so, whether the impact was short term (impact cleared within a few months) or long term (having a lasting effect on most of the year). Of the total responses compiled, 54 percent said their businesses were not impacted, 34.5 percent indicated a short term impact, 4.6 percent indicated a long term impact, and 6.9 percent were unsure.

When asked about the net annual impact of the fluctuating price of oil and related commodities, 11.9 percent of respondents indicated a negative net impact to their businesses, 33.5 percent indicated a positive net impact, 39.2 percent indicated a negligible impact, and 15.3 percent of respondents were unsure.

SUMMARY

Manufacturing

• Operating rate is currently 79.5 percent of normal capacity.
• Production capacity is expected to increase 3.4 percent in 2015.
• Capital expenditures are expected to increase 3.1 percent in 2015.
• Prices paid decreased 1.9 percent through the end of April 2015.
• Prices are expected to decrease a total of 0.9 percent for all of 2015, indicating an expected increase in prices of 1.0 percent for the remainder of the year.
• Manufacturing employment is expected to increase 0.7 percent during the remainder of 2015.
• Manufacturing revenues are expected to increase 3.5 percent in 2015.
• Overall, manufacturing is expected to maintain a positive growth trend in 2015.

Non-Manufacturing

• Operating rate is currently 86 percent of normal capacity.
• Production capacity is expected to increase 2.6 percent in 2015.
• Capital expenditures are expected to increase 1.5 percent in 2015.
• Prices paid increased 1 percent through the end of April 2015.
• Prices were reported to have increased 1 percent in the first four months of the year and are expected to decrease 0.4 percentage point for the rest of the year for a total net annual increase of 0.6 percent.
• Non-manufacturing employment is expected to increase 2 percent during the balance of 2015.
• Non-manufacturing revenues are expected to increase 2.9 percent in 2015.
• The non-manufacturing sector is projected to have continued growth in 2015.

*Miscellaneous Manufacturing items include products such as Medical Equipment and Supplies, Jewelry, Sporting Goods, Toys and Office Supplies.

**Other Services include: Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services.

In addition to the forecast, the Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® is issued monthly on the first business day of each month and is considered by many economists to be the most reliable near-term economic barometer available. It is reviewed regularly by top government agencies and economic business leaders. The report, compiled from responses to questions asked of approximately 350 purchasing and supply executives across the country, tracks industrial production, new orders, inventories, supplier deliveries, employment, buying policies and prices. Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing*. The report has been issued by the association since 1931, except during World War II.

Covering the non-manufacturing sector, ISM^® debuted the Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® in June 1998. The Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® is released on the third business day of each month, and is based on data received from purchasing and supply executives from 18 different non-manufacturing industries across the country. The Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services**; and Public Administration. The report covers business activity, new orders, backlog of orders, new export orders, inventory change, inventory sentiment, imports, prices, employment, and supplier deliveries.