Blizzard On East Coast Could Interrupt New-Car Sales Strength; 12.9 Percent Increase Expected For January 2015

General Motors to Lead Automaker Sales Gains; Full-Size Trucks Thrive on Low Gas Prices, Redesigned Product

IRVINE, CA -- Jan. 27, 2015 -- New-vehicle sales are expected to increase 12.9 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.14 million units in January 2015, resulting in an estimated 16.5 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book.

January is typically one of the slowest months of the year, due to the strong push from manufacturers prior to year-end. However, at an estimated 1.14 million units expected in January, this month could be the highest reported January since 2006.

"Sales are trending well above levels since this time last year, when the polar vortex kept shoppers away from dealerships in many parts of the country," said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book. "Although sales have moved briskly so far in January, a potential blizzard on the east coast does present downside risk as we head into the final selling days of the month."

Total sales in 2015 are projected to hit 16.9 million units overall, a 2.5 percent year-over-year increase and the highest overall total since 2005, when sales fell just shy of 17 million units.

Key Highlights for Estimated January 2015 Sales Forecast:

In January, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,140,000 units, up 12.9 percent from January 2014 and down 24.2 percent from December 2014.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for January 2015 is estimated to be 16.5 million, up from 15.3 million in January 2014 and down from 16.9 million in December 2014.

Retail sales are expected to account for 82 percent of volume in January 2015, flat compared to January 2014.

General Motors to Lead New-Vehicle Sales Gains in January 2015

General Motors is expected to lead gains this month with an anticipated 19.5 percent increase year-over-year, thanks to renewed interest in trucks and sport utility vehicles. The Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra have been in high demand lately and Kelley Blue Book expects to see this continue into the early part of 2015.

Fiat-Chrysler will be among the top performers in January on continued strength for the Jeep brand, particularly the Cherokee. With gas prices expected to remain low and fuel efficiency in utility and truck segments stronger than ever, expect Ram and Jeep to have a solid month.

Full-Size Trucks Thrive with Low Gas Prices, Appeal of Redesigned Product

"Full-size trucks continue to thrive in 2015 and Kelley Blue Book anticipates sales will improve more than 10 percent in January alone," said Gutierrez. "Expect a strong push from Chevrolet Silverado, GMC Sierra, Ram and F-Series, especially when taking into consideration the low cost of fuel and the appeal of these recently redesigned core products."

Growth in the small crossover segment should begin to slow, but it will remain in the double-digit range in 2015. In January, Kelley Blue Book expects sales to improve by nearly 10 percent on strong demand for the Jeep Cherokee, Honda, CR-V, Toyota RAV4 and a host of other strong competitors in the segment.

There are 26 sales days in January 2015, compared to 25 sales days in January 2014. All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.