New-Car Sales To Fall 2.7 Percent Year-Over-Year In June, Climb 5.5 Percent For Q2 2014


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IRVINE, CA -- June 27, 2014: New-vehicle sales are expected to fall 2.7 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.36 million units, resulting in an estimated 16.3 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book.

"A total of 1.36 million units sold this month will bring the number of units for the first half of 2014 to 8.1 million units, a 3.5 percent increase from last year," said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book. "Following a slow start to the year, second-quarter totals will hit nearly 4.36 million, a 5.5 percent increase from the second quarter of 2013 and also the best second quarter since 2006. At this rate, the 16.3 million SAAR expected in June will be the third month above 16 million SAAR in the past four months, showing strong momentum heading into the second half of the year."

Key Highlights for Estimated June 2014 Sales Forecast:

In June, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,364,000 units, down 2.7 percent from June 2013 and down 15 percent from May 2014. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for June 2014 is estimated to be 16.3 million, up from 15.8 million in June 2013 and down from 16.7 million in May 2014. Retail sales are expected to account for 83 percent of volume in June 2014. Chrysler, Nissan Drive More Than Half of Industry's Year-to-Date Sales Growth While sales are expected to slow in June, Kelley Blue Book continues to see positive growth for Chrysler and Nissan. Both automakers have experienced strong sales in 2014 and the two combined have driven more than half of the industry's year-to-date sales growth.

"One of the greatest sales declines may come from Ford, which is preparing to restructure its F-Series factories in preparation for the new aluminum-bodied truck later this year," said Gutierrez. "By implementing changes to its factories, Ford will need to ensure it has enough inventory to last through the transition, potentially pushing sales down in the near-term."


Sales Volume 1

Market Share 2

Manufacturer

Jun-14

Jun-13

YOY %

Jun-14

Jun-13

YOY %

General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)

255,000

264,843

-3.7%

18.7%

18.9%

-0.2%

Ford Motor Company (Ford, Lincoln)

218,000

234,917

-7.2%

16.0%

16.8%

-0.8%

Toyota Motor Company (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)

194,000

195,235

-0.6%

14.2%

13.9%

0.3%

Chrysler Group (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, RAM)

160,000

156,686

2.1%

11.7%

11.2%

0.6%

American Honda (Acura, Honda)

127,000

136,913

-7.2%

9.3%

9.8%

-0.5%

Hyundai-Kia

110,000

115,543

-4.8%

8.1%

8.2%

-0.2%

Nissan North America (Infiniti, Nissan)

108,000

104,124

3.7%

7.9%

7.4%

0.5%

Volkswagen Group (Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche)

48,000

54,363

-11.7%

3.5%

3.9%

-0.4%

Total 3

1,364,000

1,402,242

-2.7%

-

-

-

1 Historical data from OEM sales announcements







2 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights







3 Includes brands not shown







 

Compact Utility Vehicles May Pass Full-Size Pickup Trucks to Become Third-Largest Segment
The fastest-growing segment in June continues to be the compact SUV/crossover segment, which may pass full-size pickup trucks this year to become the third-largest segment in the industry.  Helped by models such as the Nissan Rogue and Subaru Forester, vehicles in this segment are spending an average of 47 days in inventory, compared to the industry average of 66 days. 

Kelley Blue Book expects full-size pickup trucks to report the largest decline of all major vehicle segments, which could be driven by Ford's upcoming F-Series redesign and the manufacturer's need to maintain inventory during the factory retooling.  While RAM sales have been strong (up 21 percent for the year), sales of the new Chevrolet Silverado have been tepid (down 1 percent). 


Sales Volume 1

Market Share

Segment

Jun-14

Jun-13

YOY %

Jun-14

Jun-13

YOY %

Compact Car

203,000

214,411

-5.3%

14.9%

15.3%

-0.4%

Mid-Size Car

199,000

213,241

-6.7%

14.6%

15.2%

-0.6%

Compact SUV/Crossover

170,000

161,156

5.5%

12.5%

11.5%

1.0%

Full-Size Pickup Truck

158,000

170,437

-7.3%

11.6%

12.2%

-0.6%

Entry-level Luxury Car

63,000

67,201

-6.3%

4.6%

4.8%

-0.2%

Total 2

1,364,000

1,402,242

-2.7%

-

-

-

1 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights







2 Includes segments not shown







 

There are 24 sales days in June 2014, compared to 26 sales days in June 2013.  All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.

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