New-Car Sales Expected To Climb 10 Percent, Reach 16.3 Million SAAR In April


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IRVINE, CA--April 28, 2014: New-vehicle sales are expected to rise 10 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.415 million units, and an estimated 16.3 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book. This increase would bring the year-to-date total to 5.15 million units sold, which is a 3.6 percent increase from this time last year.

"Following a big rebound in March, Kelley Blue Book expects April to continue with another solid month of sales, which will be supported by rising consumer confidence and improving employment conditions," said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book. "Sales also are supported by improved credit availability, low interest rates and attractive lease offers. Leasing has accounted for approximately 25 percent of all retail sales so far this year, a trend which is supported by a continued strong outlook for used-car values along with low interest rates."

Key Highlights for Estimated April 2014 Sales Forecast:

In March, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,415,000 units, up 10.1 percent from April 2013 and down 7.8 percent from March 2014. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for April 2014 is estimated to be 16.3 million, up from 15.2 million in April 2013 and flat with March 2014. Retail sales are expected to account for 82 percent of volume in April 2014.

Nissan to Report Greatest Automaker Gains; Chrysler Dominates in Volume

For April, Nissan is expected to show the greatest gains of all major manufacturers at 19.5 percent year-over-year. Driven primarily by strong sales of the redesigned Rogue and Sentra, Nissan has captured nearly one percentage point of market share from last year. In terms of volume, Kelley Blue Book anticipates Chrysler will pick up the most units year-over-year with 18.1 percent growth. The popularity of the Jeep and RAM brands this year (up 44.5 percent and 27.3 percent respectively) has more than made up for the sale declines from both Dodge and Chrysler brands.


Sales Volume 1

Market Share 2

Manufacturer

Apr-14

Apr-13

YOY %

Apr-14

Apr-13

YOY %

General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)

250,000

237,646

5.2%

17.7%

18.5%

-0.8%

Ford Motor Company (Ford, Lincoln)

210,000

211,984

-0.9%

14.8%

16.5%

-1.7%

Toyota Motor Company (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)

203,000

176,160

15.2%

14.3%

13.7%

0.6%

Chrysler Group (Chrysler, Dodge, Fiat, Jeep, RAM)

185,000

156,698

18.1%

13.1%

12.2%

0.9%

American Honda (Acura, Honda)

139,000

130,999

6.1%

9.8%

10.2%

-0.4%

Nissan North America (Infiniti, Nissan)

105,000

87,847

19.5%

7.4%

6.8%

0.6%

Hyundai-Kia

115,000

110,871

3.7%

8.1%

8.6%

-0.5%

Volkswagen Group (Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche)

53,000

50,879

4.2%

3.7%

4.0%

-0.2%

Total 3

1,415,000

1,285,446

10.1%

-

-

-

1 Historical data from OEM sales announcements







2 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights







3 Includes brands not shown







Compact Utility Vehicles to Reveal Double-Digit Growth; RAM Leading Full-Size Pickup Truck Segment Growth

Compact utility vehicles will continue with double-digit growth this month, even though the segment leader, Ford Escape, has seen sales decline this year.  Many models in this segment have earned growth in excess of 40 percent so far this year, including the Nissan Rogue, Subaru Forester and Mazda CX-5. 

"Full-size pickup trucks also should reveal healthy growth in April," said Gutierrez.  "RAM pickup sales are leading the segment's growth, but look for GM's trucks to turn around recent sales declines after bumping up their incentives this month.  Meanwhile, the F-Series will continue to dominate the segment as Ford prepares to launch the new generation later this year."


Sales Volume 1

Market Share

Segment

Apr-14

Apr-13

YOY %

Apr-14

Apr-13

YOY %

Mid-Size Car

216,000

205,104

5.3%

15.3%

16.0%

-0.7%

Compact Car

204,000

197,154

3.5%

14.4%

15.3%

-0.9%

Compact SUV/Crossover

179,000

146,354

22.3%

12.7%

11.4%

1.3%

Full-Size Pickup Truck

172,000

155,482

10.6%

12.2%

12.1%

0.1%

Entry-level Luxury Car

63,000

61,981

1.6%

4.5%

4.8%

-0.4%

Total 2

1,415,000

1,285,446

10.1%

-

-

-

1 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights







2 Includes segments not shown







There are 26 sales days in April 2014, compared to 25 sales days in April 2013.  All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.

There are 26 sales days in April 2014, compared to 25 sales days in April 2013. All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.

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