New-Car Sales To Improve Nearly 2 Percent From Last Year; Kelley Blue Book Projects Best January Since 2007


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IRVINE, CA--Jan. 23, 2014: New-vehicle sales are expected to improve 1.6 percent year-over-year in January to a total of 1.06 million units, and an estimated 15.9 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book KBB, the leading provider of new and used car information. At 15.9 million, this would be the highest recorded January SAAR since 2007, when it was 16.4 million.

"January is typically the weakest sales month of the year as many consumers take advantage of holiday deals in December. However, winter storms also could impact new-vehicle sales this month, as much of the country deals with historically cold weather and snowstorms," said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book. "Early estimates indicate fleet sales will be down as well."

Key Highlights for Estimated January 2014 Sales Forecast:

In January, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,060,000 units, up 1.6 percent from January 2013 and down 21.9 percent from December 2013. The seasonally adjusted annual rate for January 2014 is estimated to be 15.9 million, up from 15.2 million in January 2013 and up from 15.3 million in in December 2013. Retail sales are expected to account for 83 percent of volume in January 2014.

Nissan to Record Solid Sales from Top-Performing Altima, Rogue Chrysler is expected to post a respectable gain in January with strength from its Jeep and RAM brands. Following the recent launch of the Cherokee crossover, Jeep sales increased 34 percent in December, while the overall industry was flat. In addition, RAM sales finished the year 22 percent higher than the previous year.

"We expect Nissan to record a solid sales month in January from its top products, the Altima and the all-new Rogue," said Gutierrez. "Both set record sales in 2013, and the Rogue has become an integral part of Nissan's portfolio with compact crossover sales booming among consumers." xxxxxx


Sales Volume 1

Market Share 2

Manufacturer

Jan-14

Jan-13

YOY %

Jan-14

Jan-13

YOY %

General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)

195,000

194,699

0.2%

18.4%

18.7%

-0.3%

Ford Motor Company (Ford, Lincoln)

160,000

166,501

-3.9%

15.1%

16.0%

-0.9%

Toyota Motor Company (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)

155,000

157,725

-1.7%

14.6%

15.1%

-0.5%

Chrysler Group (Chrysler, Dodge, Fiat, Jeep, RAM)

125,000

117,731

6.2%

11.8%

11.3%

0.5%

American Honda (Acura, Honda)

98,000

93,626

4.7%

9.2%

9.0%

0.3%

Nissan North America (Infiniti, Nissan)

87,000

80,919

7.5%

8.2%

7.8%

0.5%

Hyundai-Kia

83,000

80,015

3.7%

7.8%

7.7%

0.2%

Volkswagen Group (Audi, Volkswagen)

39,500

39,120

1.0%

3.7%

3.8%

0.0%

Total 3

1,060,000

1,043,192

1.6%

-

-

-

1 Historical data from OEM sales announcements







2 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights







3 Includes brands not shown







 

Full-Size Pickup Truck Sales Growth Expected to Slow on Cutback Incentives, Arrival of New F-Series
Compact crossovers will continue to report double-digit growth for the fifteenth month in a row, albeit slower than the 20 percent growth seen last year.  Entry-level luxury cars also will post positive numbers, thanks to the recently launched BMW 4 Series and all-new Mercedes-Benz CLA-Class. 

"Following a huge year in 2013, full-size pickup truck sales should see growth slow in 2014," said Gutierrez.  "General Motors will look to cut back on incentives on the all-new Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra, while Ford manages their inventory before its new line of F-Series trucks hits the market later this year."


Sales Volume 1

Market Share

Segment

Jan-14

Jan-13

YOY %

Jan-14

Jan-13

YOY %

Mid-Size Car

177,000

177,730

-0.4%

16.7%

17.0%

-0.3%

Compact Car

153,000

151,071

1.3%

14.4%

14.5%

0.0%

Compact Crossover

138,000

125,311

10.1%

13.0%

12.0%

1.0%

Full-Size Pickup Truck

123,000

126,115

-2.5%

11.6%

12.1%

-0.5%

Entry Luxury Car

41,000

39,868

2.8%

3.9%

3.8%

0.0%

Total 2

1,060,000

1,043,192

1.6%

-

-

-

1 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights







2 Includes segments not shown







1 Historical data from OEM sales announcements

2 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

3 Includes brands not shown

Full-Size Pickup Truck Sales Growth Expected to Slow on Cutback Incentives, Arrival of New F-Series Compact crossovers will continue to report double-digit growth for the fifteenth month in a row, albeit slower than the 20 percent growth seen last year. Entry-level luxury cars also will post positive numbers, thanks to the recently launched BMW 4 Series and all-new Mercedes-Benz CLA-Class.

"Following a huge year in 2013, full-size pickup truck sales should see growth slow in 2014," said Gutierrez. "General Motors will look to cut back on incentives on the all-new Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra, while Ford manages their inventory before its new line of F-Series trucks hits the market later this year."

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