2013 New-Car Sales To Improve Nearly 5 Percent From Last Year


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Kelley Blue Book Projects 16.3 Million New Car Sales In 2014 - Chrysler, Honda Expected to Post Big Gains; Full-Size Trucks, Compact Crossovers Dominate All Vehicle Segments

IRVINE, Calif., Dec. 19, 2013 are expected to improve 4.7 percent year-over-year in December to a total of 1.42 million units, and an estimated 16 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com, the leading provider of new and used car information.  December is projected to bring the 2013 total above 15.63 million units, an 8 percent improvement from 2012.  In addition, a 16 million SAAR would make this month the highest December since 2006, when it was 16.6 million. 

"Similar to November, sales will be heavily skewed toward the final week of the month as automakers and dealers try to beat year-end sales targets," said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book.  "For consumers, this is generally the best time of year to purchase a new vehicle.  Dealers are trying to clear remaining 2013 model-year stock, which is 26 percent of current inventory, according to AutoTrader.com listings." 

Looking forward to 2014, sales will continue to improve and Kelley Blue Book anticipates the industry to surpass 16 million SAAR for the first year since 2007.  Growth will slow from recent years; however, the initial estimate from Kelley Blue Book for 2014 is 16.3 million units, up 4.3 percent from 2013. 

 

Key Highlights for Estimated December 2013 Sales Forecast:

  • In December, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,420,000 units, up 4.7 percent from December 2012 and up 14.3 percent from November 2013.
  • The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for December 2013 is estimated to be 16.0 million, up from 15.2 million in December 2012 and down from 16.3 million in November 2013.
  • Retail sales are expected to account for 86 percent of volume in December 2013.

Chrysler Benefits from Jeep Cherokee Introduction; Honda to Rely on Aggressive Incentives

"Finally benefitting from the introduction of its mid-size Jeep Cherokee crossover, Chrysler is filling a major void in the Jeep lineup," said Gutierrez.  "Demand has been building for months, and the Cherokee sold more than 10,000 units in its first full month of sales in November 2013." 

Honda will rely on aggressive dealer incentives this month to rebound from a weaker-than-expected November.  After tepid sales last month, Kelley Blue Book expects the Civic and Accord, Honda's biggest sellers, to have a strong December.

 

Sales Volume 1

Market Share 2

Manufacturer

Dec-13

Dec-12

YOY %

Dec-13

Dec-12

YOY %

General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)

256,000

245,733

4.2%

18.0%

18.1%

-0.1%

Ford Motor Company (Ford, Lincoln)

222,000

212,902

4.3%

15.6%

15.7%

-0.1%

Toyota Motor Company (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)

202,000

194,143

4.0%

14.2%

14.3%

-0.1%

Chrysler Group (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, RAM)

169,000

152,367

10.9%

11.9%

11.2%

0.7%

American Honda (Acura, Honda)

145,000

132,774

9.2%

10.2%

9.8%

0.4%

Nissan North America (Infiniti, Nissan)

105,000

99,290

5.8%

7.4%

7.3%

0.1%

Hyundai-Kia

102,000

98,613

3.4%

7.2%

7.3%

-0.1%

Volkswagen Group (Audi, Volkswagen)

51,000

59,123

-13.7%

3.6%

4.4%

-0.8%

Total 3

1,420,000

1,356,070

4.7%

-

-

-

1 Historical data from OEM sales announcements

           

2 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

           

3 Includes brands not shown

           

Full-Size Trucks, Compact Crossovers Dominate Vehicle Segments in 2013

In December, the industry should expect a typical spike in full-size pickup truck sales, with the segment gaining a full point on market share from last month.  Year-over-year, truck sales in December are in line with the overall market, but full-size trucks in particular are expected to close the year 16.8 percent above 2012 levels. 

"Compact crossovers continue to captivate shoppers as the hottest segment in the industry, with double-digit growth in each month this year," said Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book.  "In December, there will be a tight race for the 2013 sales leader, as the Honda CR-V led the Ford Escape by fewer than 4,000 units going into the month.  This segment should end the year with a more than 20 percent increase from last year." 

Lastly, subcompact cars are on the decline this month and are expected to end the year just 1 percent above last year's total.  Last year brought huge growth for this segment; however, without much new product to get excited about in 2013, budget-conscious consumers are likely looking at newly redesigned compact cars such as the Toyota Corolla and Kia Soul. 

 

Sales Volume 1

Market Share

Segment

Dec-13

Dec-12

YOY %

Dec-13

Dec-12

YOY %

Mid-Size Car

201,000

191,334

5.1%

14.2%

14.1%

0.0%

Compact Car

191,000

190,335

0.3%

13.5%

14.0%

-0.6%

Compact Crossover

170,000

147,763

15.0%

12.0%

10.9%

1.1%

Full-Size Pickup Truck

193,000

183,492

5.2%

13.6%

13.5%

0.1%

Subcompact Car

48,000

51,796

-7.3%

3.4%

3.8%

-0.4%

Total 2

1,420,000

1,356,070

4.7%

-

-

-

1 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

           

2 Includes segments not shown

           

About Kelley Blue Book (www.kbb.com)
Founded in 1926, Kelley Blue Book, provides the most market-reflective values in the industry on its top-rated website KBB.com, including its famous Blue BookŪ Trade-In and Suggested Retail Values, and Fair Purchase Price, which reports what others are paying for new cars this week.  The company also provides vehicle pricing and values through various products and services available to car dealers, auto manufacturers, finance and insurance companies, and governmental agencies. AutoTrader Group is a majority-owned subsidiary of Cox Enterprises.

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