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Electric Vehicle Sales in China Will Fall Far Short of Government Targets, According to Pike Research


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BOULDER, CO--November 20, 2012: Considering electric vehicle (EV) development and adoption to be a strategic priority with major economic, environmental, and security impacts for the country, the government of China has established a goal of making China the world leader in plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales. This includes a target of manufacturing 500,000 PEVs per year by 2015. According to a recent report from Pike Research, a part of Navigant"s Energy Practice, however, annual sales of PEVs will reach only 45,000 units by 2015, increasing to 152,000 vehicles in 2017. That figure represents less than one percent of the total light duty vehicle market in China.

“Indeed, evidence is emerging to suggest that Chinese EV manufacturers have yet to develop proven technology that can propel the market. Even though it is unlikely to reach its targets, however, China"s EV ambitions will provide a huge boost to electric car development worldwide in the long run.”

"As of early 2012, only a few domestically produced EV models were available to China's general public," says research director John Gartner. "Indeed, evidence is emerging to suggest that Chinese EV manufacturers have yet to develop proven technology that can propel the market. Even though it is unlikely to reach its targets, however, China"s EV ambitions will provide a huge boost to electric car development worldwide in the long run."

Since 2003, Chinese automakers have released or announced the production of 40 battery electric vehicles and 31 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles that will be on the market by 2015. Chinese vehicle manufacturers such as BYD, SAIC, and Foton all delivered hybrids or PEVs to the market by 2011. Among foreign automakers, Japanese and American manufacturers -- including General Motors, Honda, Nissan, and Toyota -- were early entrants to the PEV market, while European suppliers have yet to announce PEV launch plans for China.

The report, "Electric Vehicles in China", outlines the market opportunities and challenges for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles in China, and provides an examination of EV battery and charging infrastructure trends in the world"s largest automotive market. The report analyzes government initiatives and policy trends, technology and standards issues, and key industry players in China. Detailed market forecasts for each vehicle category, as well as for EV batteries and EV supply equipment installations, extend through 2017. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Pike Research website.