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Nearly 80 Million Clean Diesel Vehicles Will be Sold Worldwide From 2012 to 2018, Forecasts Pike Research


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BOULDER, CO--November 2, 2012: --Diesel cars have long been tremendously popular in Europe, where high fuel prices mean that the price premium of a diesel car can be paid off quickly. However, other regions that have not traditionally been strong diesel markets, such as North America, are now starting to open up--particularly as increasingly stringent emissions regulations in Europe, Japan, and North America accelerate the spread of so-called "clean diesel" vehicles. According to a recent report from Pike Research, a part of Navigant's Energy Practice, sales of clean diesel vehicles, including light-duty vehicles and medium-duty trucks, will grow from just under 10 million in 2012 to almost 13 million in 2018. All told, nearly 80 million clean diesel vehicles will be sold worldwide from 2012 to 2018, the study concludes.

“Makers of diesel vehicles have had two primary barriers to overcome, particularly in the United States: the price premium, which can be from $1,000 to $3,000 more than gasoline vehicles, and the perception that diesels are dirtier than gasoline cars”

"Makers of diesel vehicles have had two primary barriers to overcome, particularly in the United States: the price premium, which can be from $1,000 to $3,000 more than gasoline vehicles, and the perception that diesels are dirtier than gasoline cars," says senior research analyst Lisa Jerram. "New clean diesel models are helping automakers overcome those characteristics and are being rewarded with a more positive impression among car buyers."

One other key enabler for clean diesel technology is the widespread availability of ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD). Not only is sulfur itself an air pollutant, but also, more importantly, sulfur compounds can poison certain diesel vehicle emissions control devices, such as the NOx adsorber often found in clean diesel engines. The United States, Canada, the EU, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, and New Zealand all require that highway diesel fuel be ULSD, and, as such, will be primary markets for clean diesel vehicles going forward, according to the report. Other countries, such as India, that are major diesel vehicle markets will not see clean diesel options until more stringent fuel and vehicle emissions regulations are in place.

The report, "Clean Diesel Vehicles", analyzes the global market potential for clean diesel light duty vehicles, as well as the medium and heavy duty segments, from 2012 through 2018. The study assesses the demand drivers for diesel to gain market share over gasoline in key markets where clean diesel regulations are in place. Key industry players are profiled in depth and detailed market forecasts are provided for the clean diesel vehicle market, segmented by world regions and key countries, through 2018. The report also compares projected clean diesel adoption with forecasts of hybrid and plug-in electric vehicles in key regions. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Pike Research website.