U.S. Vehicle Sales Roaring Back Toward Sweet 16?

Washington DC April 16, 2012; The AIADA newsletter reported that sales of 16 million light vehicles is a real posibility.

In recent days, several key analysts, some big dealership groups, and a handful of automakers, including Mercedes-Benz and Chrysler, have upped their forecasts for 2012 and the next two years.

Automotive News reports that they all see 16 million on the horizon – not this year, of course, but within two years. And they say single-month selling rates of 16 million are likely in 2013.

Mercedes' U.S. boss, Steve Cannon, said forecasters are "starting to sharpen their pencils and determine, 'Heck, is this thing coming sooner than we thought?'" The new confidence grows out of a surprisingly strong first quarter.

"We see 16 million in a couple years," John Krafcik, CEO of Hyundai Motor America, said last week. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas said he "would not rule out 17 million" in three years.

AutoNation has raised its 2012 forecast from 14 million to the mid-14 million range. U.S. sales last touched 16 million in 2007, then dipped to 10.4 million in 2009, before rising to 12.8 million last year.

In the first quarter of 2012, sales were up 13 percent, running at a selling rate of 14.5 million.