The Chase - Now Or Never: It's Go Time For Johnson

Daytona, Oct. 26, 2011: No, it doesn’t look good. Five-time defending NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion Jimmie Johnson now sits 50 points out of the lead after his second consecutive finish outside the top 20.

Those 50 points translate to roughly 208 points under the old points system. Since 1975, the inception of the current position-based points format, the largest deficit overcome with four races remaining was 144 points by Alan Kulwicki in 1992. In the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup™ era (2004-present), the largest deficit overcome with four races left was 53 points, by Johnson in 2007. That roughly equates to 13 points in the new points system.

So, it’s over, right? Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? This is Jimmie Johnson we’re talking about. He – and his fans – have plenty of reasons to believe. Let’s count the ways…

Martinsville’s Up Next: In 19 Martinsville Speedway starts, Johnson has finished outside the top 10 only twice – his first time and his last time. In his career at NASCAR Sprint Cup’s shortest track, he has six wins and 1,616 laps led (he has eight triple-digit laps-led races at Martinsville). And his Driver Rating leads the series at 121.9. If Johnson doesn't win Sunday, it will be the first year since 2005 that he hasn't won a short-track race in a season.

Texas Is After That: Johnson boasts only one win at Texas (in 2007, when he made his big comeback to win his second championship), but has 12 top 10s in 16 starts.

And Phoenix Is After That: Phoenix’s repave may hurt Johnson more than any other driver. Johnson LOVED the old surface, scoring four wins overall. He comes into the race with 10 consecutive finishes in the top five (the record is 16, by Richard Petty at North Wilkesboro). Then again, the repave could help Johnson. Reviews from last month’s test said that the track is slick. Few drive a loose race car like the five-time champion.

Johnson Thrives On Adversity: Only one other time in the Chase has Johnson finished outside the top 20 in back-to-back races (2004). That time, he followed it up with three consecutive victories.