Peeking Into the Future of the Automobile - An Interview With Johannes-Joerg Rueger, Senior Vice President Engineering, Diesel Systems, Robert Bosch LLC
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by Thom Cannell
Senior Editor
Detroit Bureau
The Auto Channel
 Johannes-Joerg Rueger, Senior Vice President Engineering, Diesel Systems, Robert Bosch LLC |
We began our conversation wondering about fuels, whether they be petroleum-derived, biologically produced, or captured from nature. The Bosch engineer says that limitations on oil supplies, like the price induced issues we experienced in 2008 or the OPEC oil embargo of 1973-74, could again change consumer behaviors towards smaller cars, trucks, and SUVs. He, like every responsible auto executive stresses the inevitable necessity for an oil substitute, be it natural gas or a synthetic fuel made from natural gas, bio-fuels like ethanol or bio-diesel, or electricity. It is his belief that all will have some use in the reasonably foreseeable future.
Despite all the political rhetoric and auto company hype that makes you expect you’ll be driving a Nissan Leaf, Chevrolet Volt, or Tesla Roadster very very soon, Rueger says the death of the internal combustion engine is far in the future. He says it will occur only when a sustainable replacement is available. Sustainable as in no $5,000-$7,000 government subsidy.
Rueger says that well-known gasoline internal combustion engines are getting smaller and more powerful as manufacturers like BMW and Ford replace large engines with smaller engines equipped with turbochargers and direct injection. Ford calls this technology EcoBoost and every Ford vehicle we’ve driven that is equipped with this technology has been simply amazing. For instance, in the Denver area a 3.5-liter Ford Flex EcoBoost easily outpulled V-8 powered competitors like Chevrolet’s Tahoe in uphill towing.
Advanced technologies that combine direct injection and turbocharging permit smaller displacement engines to give car buyers power—both torque and horsepower—similar to larger displacement Electronic Port Fuel Injection engines. Most interestingly, he says the these new gasoline engines can become more fuel efficient “almost easily,” with associated cost reductions. (A recent government sponsored study says that replacing a V-6 engine with a high tech inline-four cylinder engine might cost the buyer nothing!) However, he speculates that all the technological low hanging fruit will be soon be picked and diesel engines are inevitable. This, he says, raises the point whether the rapid shift to smaller vehicles, seen in 2008, is sustainable without higher fuel prices and whether North American consumers will make small cars a sustainable trend.
Rueger thinks diesels retain their advantages of greater fuel economy and higher torque output though they are more expensive. He says that as we approach the newest federal fuel economy standards, which go into effect in 2016 and mandate 35.5 miles-per-gallon, the cost of advanced technologies necessary to achieve never-ending improvements no longer favors gasoline engines for automobiles of current size. At that point, when diesel aftertreatment costs, currently said to be between $1500 for small cars and $6000 for Super Duty trucks, decrease because millions advanced diesel emissions systems will have been produced, diesels will be very attractive.He says diesel’s performance and near-100% return on investment make them attractive from emissions, CO2/CAFE, and Total Cost of Ownership viewpoints.
TheAutoChannel asked about those diesel aftertreatment costs, cost that many say are the biggest reason that we have few diesel powered passenger cars in North America. Rueger said when emissions regulations for Europe, Japan, China, and other countries become as strict as those in North America the price of advanced diesel emissions systems will drop, due to economies of scale. “An example is gasoline, we started with catalysts and they were not cheap, today nobody is talking about it. Particulate filters for diesels...once they were in millions, they are not that significant.”
Considering all the glittering electric vehicle technologies, know that Bosch supplies both VW and Porsche with hybrid technology and the company makes automotive lithium-ion batteries through a joint venture with Korea’s Samsung SDI, SB LiMotive.
They also make electric motors and hybrid powertrain controllers. So Rueger’s argument that electric vehicles with anything less than 200 miles range might be a second or third vehicle underscores his position that EVs are not priced at a cost that is sustainable and competitive without subsidies.
He, and most auto executives say that a 50% reduction of battery and associated components costs will be necessary before Electric Vehicles become major global players. That is, unless major governments continue very large subsidies.
At the recent SAE World Congress he said that, looking forward to the 2020 global fleet, he thinks expecting 3 million pure EVS and PHEVS (electric vehicles like Volt and partial electric hybrid vehicle like Prius) remains an ambitious but achievable target. That number would represent 8-10% of the global fleet. For cities like London, Beijing, Mumbai, and Tokyo, not to mention New York City, electric vehicles are reasonable. The often-stated government target of a 40% share of the market is, he says, unrealistic.
According to Rueger, the metrics are simple: “the number (of EVs) sold is not relevant and could be highly influenced by subsidies, not necessarily reflecting a real trend. ...it is really the cost of the battery...and availability of the components to make those batteries” that will truly disclose the success or failure of EVs. “Then, once you have something that is attractive from cost and performance perspective, people will buy it. …” He also makes the point that including the production of electric energy emissions in “well-to-wheel” comparisons of EVs and PHEVS to vehicles with IC engines is necessary. “Once we do that, we see that EVs, at this point, are not as clean as they seem to be.” (At SAE one panel related the difficulty of calculating emissions for EV: was the electricity produced from solar or wind, or coal and oil?)
Rueger thinks that regardless who makes your next car it will be the engine and transmission, the powertrain, that will create product differentiation. While it is possible for Ford and Jaguar or VW and Porsche to share an engine and achieve differences through transmission selection or the way the engine and suspension are tuned, it is unlikely. Perhaps of most interest he says that while squeezing an electric motor into the space once occupied by a gas or diesel engine appears easy, packaging the battery might not be. Both Volt and Leaf are designed in rather conventional ways and converted vehicles like the electric MINI simply stuff the battery under the rear seat. The ability to place batteries where they contribute to chassis stiffness or perfect weight distribution and moving the electric motors into the wheels imply future styling differences between pure electric automobiles and their IC engine-equipped counterparts.
