Arthur D. Little: The Global Truck and Bus Industry Will Experience Market and Technology Challenges after Today’s Financial Crisis

LONDON--The impact of the global financial crisis on the truck and bus industry has been profound. However, other forces such as increasing divergence in market requirements and new powertrain technologies are driving major changes in the commercial vehicle (CV) industry, which are fundamentally changing the way OEMs, dealers and suppliers conduct business. ‘Powertrain at the Crossroads,’ a new study released today by global management consultancy Arthur D. Little, provides insight into how new technology and market diversification will dramatically reshape the industrial structure of those countries heavily dependent on the CV industry.

The CV sector is facing complex issues as a result of technology changes taking place, and questions about how to adapt are currently occurring at all stages of the value chain. Several key findings can be drawn from Arthur D. Little’s study:

• Tougher and diverging emissions regulations, combined with green customer profiling and expected oil scarcity, are expected to drive market fragmentation for CVs
• The impact of these constraints will significantly vary by geography, dependent upon how and where vehicles are used
• The range of potential new powertrain technologies available to meet the challenges of the future is richer than ever
• The need to share strategic and technology risk requires new forms of collaboration between OEMS and suppliers

“Uncertainty about the future of the commercial vehicle industry has never been so high. The most successful companies will be those who truly understand both the market and technology drivers. We will see the rapid growth of new market segments, and new opportunities will appear in the value chain for forward-thinking suppliers and emerging players,” said Per M Nilsson, Global Head of Automotive & Manufacturing at Arthur D. Little. “OEMs and suppliers may even have difficulty serving all their traditional segments and geographical markets. In order to remain competitive in this environment, OEM´s and suppliers must develop flexible product and technology strategies that will enable a rapid shift between technology tracks. Huge opportunities exist for those that back the right technology, in the right market, at the right time.”