Edmunds.com Forecasts April 2009 Auto Sales; SAAR Improves to 10 Million


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SANTA MONICA, Calif.--This month’s new vehicle sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be 859,000 units, a 30.8 percent decrease from April 2008 and a 0.5 percent increase from March 2009, according to Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information.

April 2009 had 26 selling days, the same as last April 2008.

Change from March 2009 Change from April 2008
Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep) -11.1% -39.2%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln, Mercury, Volvo) 10.5% -27.2%
General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Hummer, Pontiac, Saab, Saturn) 6.2% -36.0%
Honda (Acura, Honda) 11.9% -26.9%
Hyundai (Hyundai, Kia) -5.6% -10.9%
Nissan (Infiniti, Nissan) -17.3% -27.3%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) -1.9% -40.2%
Industry Total 0.5% -30.8%

“Given April sales, we estimate the SAAR is up to 10 million, compared with 9.1 in February,” observed Jesse Toprak, Executive Director of Industry Analysis for Edmunds.com. “The industry is slowly picking up much-needed momentum but there is still a lot of risk: a demand stimulus like a ‘cash for clunkers’ program could help while an automaker bankruptcy could hurt, depending on how consumer confidence is affected.”

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 46.2 percent in April 2009, down from 48.4 percent in April 2008 and up from 45.1 percent in March 2009.

“If you like underdogs, you’ll enjoy the April forecast, since Ford market share is expected to be higher than it was this time last year and Hyundai/Kia market share should surpass Nissan,” commented Michelle Krebs, Senior Editor of Edmunds’ AutoObserver.com. “Honda is expected to have the largest month-over-month increase of any major manufacturer, while Toyota is expected to suffer a significant decrease since the company reduced its incentives spend, seemingly misreading the price-sensitive marketplace.”

Edmunds.com predicts Chrysler will sell 89,000 units in April 2009, down 39.2 percent compared to April 2008 and down 11.1 percent from March 2009. This would result in a new car market share of 10.4 percent for Chrysler in April 2009, down from 11.8 percent in April 2008 and down from 11.8 percent in March 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts Ford will sell 143,000 units in April 2009, down 27.2 percent compared to April 2008 and up 10.5 percent from March 2009. This would result in a new car market share of 16.6 percent of new car sales in April 2009 for Ford, up from 15.8 percent in April 2008 and up from 15.1 percent in March 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts GM will sell 165,000 units in April 2009, down 36.0 percent compared to April 2008 and up 6.2 percent from March 2009. GM’s market share is expected to be 19.2 percent of new vehicle sales in April 2009, down from 20.7 percent in April 2008 and up from 18.2 percent in March 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts Honda will sell 99,000 units in April 2009, down 26.9 percent from April 2008 and up 11.9 percent from March 2009. Honda’s market share is expected to be 11.5 percent in April 2009, up from 10.9 percent in April 2008 and up from 10.3 percent in March 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts Hyundai will sell 62,000 units in April 2009, down 10.9 percent from April 2008 and down 5.6 percent from March 2009. Hyundai’s market share is expected to be 7.2 percent in April 2009, up from 5.6 percent in April 2008 and down from 7.7 percent in March 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts Nissan will sell 55,000 units in April 2009, down 27.3 percent from April 2008 and down 17.3 percent from March 2009. Nissan’s market share is expected to be 6.4 percent in April 2009, up from 6.1 percent in April 2008 and down from 7.8 percent in March 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts Toyota will sell 130,000 units in April 2009, down 40.2 percent from April 2008 and down 1.9 percent from March 2009. Toyota’s market share is expected to be 15.2 percent in April 2009, down from 17.5 percent in April 2008 and down from 15.5 percent in March 2009.

About Edmunds Inc. (http://www.edmunds.com/help/about/)

Edmunds Inc. publishes four Web sites that empower, engage and educate automotive consumers, enthusiasts and insiders. Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive consumer information, launched in 1995 as the first automotive information Web site. Its most popular feature, the Edmunds.com True Market Value, is relied upon by millions of people seeking current transaction prices for new and used vehicles. Edmunds.com was named “Best Car Research Site” by Forbes ASAP, has been selected by consumers as the “Most Useful Web Site” according to every J.D. Power and Associates New Autoshopper.com Study(SM), was ranked first in the Survey of Car-Shopping Web Sites by The Wall Street Journal and was rated “#1” in Keynote’s study of third-party automotive Web sites. Inside Line launched in 2005 and is the most-read automotive enthusiast Web site. CarSpace launched in 2006 and is an automotive social networking Web site and home to the oldest and most established automotive community. AutoObserver.com launched in 2008 and provides insightful automotive industry commentary and analysis. Edmunds Inc. is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, and maintains a satellite office in suburban Detroit.

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