CMCDA Latest Auto Forecast Covering Third Quarter Released Today
SACRAMENTO, Calif., Nov. 16, 2006 -- Auto sales in California will continue to slow down through the rest of 2006 and 2007, but should return to near normal growth during 2008 and 2009, according to the third quarter California Auto Outlook report released today by the California Motor Car Dealers Association (CMCDA).
"New registrations of cars and light trucks in California declined 7.6 percent in the third quarter of this year versus a year earlier partially due to strong sales in the summer of 2005, when the employee discount incentive programs were in full swing. The good news is that the market is predicted to move higher in 2008 and 2009, with 2009 registrations approaching the 2.2 million mark," said Bert Boeckmann, CMCDA chairman and president of Galpin Ford in North Hills.
CMCDA's press conference call earlier today discussed the following: * Domestic brand vehicles are expected to decline 9.2 percent this year, while Japanese brand registrations should increase slightly. * Full size pickup and mid size SUV market share each declined by more than one share point. BMW 3-Series was the best selling near luxury car in California. * Through September of 2004, luxury brands accounted for 18.1 percent of the state's new retail light vehicle market, with the share increasing to 19.7 percent during the same period this year. * The Big Three lost 4.7 market share points during the first nine months of this year. Japanese brand market share increased 4.3 points, with Toyota (including Lexus and Scion) increasing 3.7 points. Nissan market share declined. European brand market share improved 0.6 of a point, with Mercedes increasing 0.5 of a point. Korean brand market share declined 0.2 of a point. * Car market share in the state through September of this year was 54.8 percent, with the rest of the market consisting of light trucks. Domestic brand market share in California was 41.2 percent this year, well below the 54.1 percent share in the nation. * Toyota (including Scion) has assumed a commanding position as the leading brand in the state, with market share nearly twice as high as second place Honda (23.1 percent for Toyota through September of this year versus 12.1 percent for Honda).
The complete third quarter California Auto Outlook is available on CMCDA's Web site www.cmcda.org under the Newsroom section. Regional Auto Outlook third quarter reports covering Silicon Valley, Orange County, Southland and the San Diego markets are also available on the Web site.
California Auto Outlook, is produced for CMCDA by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent research company specializing in the analysis of statewide and regional automotive markets. Vehicle Registration data was obtained from AutoCount, an Experian Company.