The World's Top Auto Markets in 2030

Keystone India predicts that China and India will become the first and third largest markets for motor vehicles by 2030

CHICAGO, Nov. 29 -- The motorization of the emerging markets, with China and India leading the way, is about to give the global motor vehicle industry a second wind. A newly released white paper by Keystone India, "The World's Top Auto Markets by 2030", projects that over the next quarter century, emerging markets will replace the mature markets of America, Europe and Japan as the primary driver of sales growth and will account for a staggering 69 percent of industry sales and 87 percent of vehicle registrations within a quarter of a century.

According to the authors, Dr. William T. Wilson, Keystone India's Chief Economist and Vikas Gulabrani, "over the next 25 years, more motor vehicles will be sold than in the entire history of the industry."

Using the most recent data on demographic and economic trends among the world's largest and fastest growing motor vehicle markets, Keystone India projects the world's top 15 markets for motor vehicles from 2005 to 2030. They find that the emerging markets' share of motor vehicle sales is projected to rise from 26 percent in 2005 to 69 percent by 2030.

Keystone finds that declining populations and currently high ownership rates cause vehicle sales to decline in developed countries like South Korea, Germany, Italy, Japan and Spain over the next quarter century. "With a projected population increase of 70 million, vehicle sales in the United States are projected to rise from 16.9 million in 2004 to 23.2 million by 2030, dropping it from first to second place," concludes Dr. Wilson.

China and India will dominate this transition, as their combined shares of motor vehicle registrations will rise seven-fold from 5.3 to 37 percent by 2030.

A middle class that is expected to increase five-fold will drive China's vehicle demand. In 2017, China is projected to become the world largest market for motor vehicle sales, surpassing the United States. By 2030, China's annual sales reach 62 million, almost three times the size of projected U.S. sales!

While getting a late start, India's auto market is projected to come on strong, surpassing Japan within a decade, placing it third in sales. Fueled by rapid growth in population and per capita income, by 2030, India's auto market will almost match the United States in size.

The white paper can be procured from Keystone India's web site at http://www.keystone-india.com/ .

Keystone India provides cross border deal facilitation, consulting and asset management services to clients in the U.S. and India. Dr. Wilson has worked with the media for fifteen years and studied the auto industry in detail while he was the Senior Economist at Comerica Bank in Detroit. His profile can be accessed at http://www.keystone-india.com/ .