CSM Automotive Production Barometer (APB) - November 2005
DETROIT, Nov. 11, 2005 -- CSM Worldwide, the leading provider of market intelligence and forecasting to the automotive industry, announces the November 2005 CSM Automotive Production Barometer(TM). Released in advance of existing sources of information, this service provides an accurate tally of light vehicle production for the previous month to assist automotive economists and financial analysts in their ongoing industry evaluations.
"Our Automotive Production Barometer is intended to mirror and expand on the Federal Reserve's estimate of U.S. light vehicle production," said Greg Mount, chief economist at CSM Worldwide. "With our industry knowledge, historical record-keeping and expertise in forecasting, we're able to provide an accurate count of U.S. and aggregate North American light vehicle production an average of three to four days in advance of the Federal Reserve's report. In an industry where minutes can matter, we see this as a significant advantage."
The CSM Automotive Production Barometer for November 2005 is currently available via the CSM Worldwide website: http://www.csmauto.com/auto-production-barometer .
With U.S. sales dropping a considerable 16.4% in October following the end of employee discount programs by their respective companies, production continued its recent strength with U.S. production increasing 2.8% over last year to a seasonally adjusted rate of 12.01M units. Total U.S. light vehicle production totaled 1.06M units for the month, which is down 0.8% over last month, but up 3.1% over last year's results. Overall, U.S. production continues to lag last year's pace, with output down 0.6% at a seasonally adjusted rate of 11.66M units.
North American production increased 6.2% on a year-over-year basis to a seasonally adjusted 15.91M units in October. The introduction of several new and redesigned models continue to fuel recent increases in production despite sales tumbling in October. Leading the way were GM, DaimlerChrysler, Toyota and Honda, with GM producing at some of its highest rates of the year. Year- to-date, production on a non-seasonally adjusted rate is even with last year's pace. Though strong production figures may be evidence of GM overbuilding in anticipation of a UAW strike of Delphi operations, several high-Delphi- contented vehicles, both GM and non-GM, have not been produced in over- abundance, but such a concern remains. Both GM and Ford are locked in several "bragging rights" sales battles -- for the best-selling pickup and best- selling brand -- that are also fueling production gains.
Sales through the remainder of the year are expected to remain weak, though renewed incentive activity is expected to rekindle consumer interest, particularly in December. Volatility continues in the energy markets, and while gasoline prices fall at rates comparable to their increases a few short months ago, SUV sales are not expected to jump. GM will launch their all- important GMT900-based SUVs beginning in December, which will support increased production levels in 2006. The pull-ahead effect is now being witnessed with vehicle production, particularly for the Traditional Big 3, with numerous weeks of downtime already planned for 1Q 2006.
CSM Worldwide (http://www.csmauto.com/ ) supports more than 350 of the world's top automakers, suppliers and financial organizations with global market intelligence and forecasting services. With corporate offices in Detroit, CSM Worldwide covers the global automotive environment from London, Frankfurt, Tokyo, Paris, Sao Paulo, Singapore, Shanghai, Bangalore and Budapest.
