NYC: The Mother Of All Traffic Jams?

NEW YORK, December 14, 2002; Ula Ilnytzky writing for the AP reported that if city transit workers strike and shut down bus and subway lines Monday as threatened, just about every aspect of New York's economy would be affected, from florists to restaurants to major department stores.

The effects could ripple through the national economy, as well, analysts say.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg's administration has estimated that a transit workers' walkout would cost the city $100 million to $350 million a day — a figure that includes police overtime, lost productivity, lost retail sales and taxes.

Saturday afternoon, negotiators were trying to reach a three-year contract agreement for the 34,000 transit union workers. Transport Workers Union secretary-treasurer Ed Watt said management had pulled three offers off the table and discussions were at a point they should have reached a month ago.

``We think they have gone from not bargaining in good faith to actually showing bad faith in these negotiations,'' Watt told a news conference.

Minutes earlier, Metropolitan Transportation Authority spokesman Tom Kelly called talks ``ongoing and productive.''

If the union decides to strike after the contract expires at 12:01 a.m. Monday, even going out for a meal could be affected.

``Restaurants will move heaven and earth to stay open,'' said Chuck Hunt, executive vice president of the State Restaurant Association. ``But they can't run them without sufficient employees.''

Even if restaurant employees can get to work, Hunt said, deliveries of food and everything else would be hampered by increased traffic and restrictions the city plans to impose on vehicles entering Manhattan during rush hours.

Large department stores would lose shoppers and crucial holiday sales, said Jay McIntosh, a retail analyst with Ernst & Young.

Businesses outside the city would suffering too.

``Because of New York's pre-eminence in the national and global financial markets and the corporate world, this will be detrimental to businesses throughout the United States,'' said Anthony Savino, who teaches corporate law at St. John's University.

And the congestion on New York highways would slow the flow of goods to other parts of the country, said Bill Joyce, president of the New York State Motor Truck Association.

``You can't get from the bulk of states to New England without going through New York somewhere. It's a geographic lock,'' Joyce said.

The financial community would not be as severely affected. The New York Stock Exchange said it had a plan to deal with a strike but wouldn't elaborate.

``Most of the business that we do can be done, and is going to be done, from outside,'' said Steve Letzler, spokesman for the Depository Trust and Clearing Corp., which processes Wall Street trades.

On Broadway, Christmas and New Year's weeks are normally the two highest-grossing of the year, with 750,000 patrons bringing in $45 million at the box office, according to the League of American Theatres and Producers. While many Broadway seats are sold in advance, some shows still rely on walk-up sales.

``New York City does not need to have another holiday season disrupted,'' Savino said.

Businesses had hoped for an improvement over 2001, the year of the World Trade Center attacks. ``We know from what happened last year, you can't get to downtown Manhattan unless you can get on the subway,'' Savino said.

Bloomberg spokesman Ed Skyler said Saturday that the mayor had no plans to join in the ongoing negotiations. Last week, union president Roger Toussaint told the mayor to ``shut up'' after Bloomberg called for heavy fines against the union and workers who strike.

The union is seeking 6 percent annual raises over three years. The MTA, facing a $1 billion-dollar deficit and contemplating a fare increase, is offering no raise the first year and possible raises the following two years tied to productivity increases.

The union would face legal ramifications if it strikes. A judge issued a restraining order Friday that reinforces the state's Taylor Law, which bars strikes by public employees and orders fines of two days' pay for every day on strike. The ruling could possibly add contempt charges and even jail time. The union has appealed.