SANTA MONICA, Calif.—ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $53 billion for the month of December, down 3.7 percent from a year ago on an unadjusted selling day basis and nearly flat on an adjusted selling basis at 0.2 percent.

Automakers should post a loss of $2 billion in revenue compared to last year, largely due to one less selling day this year.

Average Transaction Prices in December 2016 grew by 1.0 percent compared to the prior month while showing a loss of 1.1 percent over the prior year.

“With inventories on the rise, automakers are relying on hefty incentives to clear dealer stock at the close of 2016,” said Oliver Strauss, ALG’s chief economist. “The slight increase in sales for December (on a daily selling rate basis) just wasn’t enough to offset the decline in transaction prices to beat sales revenue of the previous year.”

ALG estimates the average transaction price (ATP) for a new light vehicle was $33,340 in December, down 1.1 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit grew by $611 to $3,673. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP was 11 percent, up from 9.1 percent a year ago.

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer

    

Dec. 2016
Forecast

    

Dec. 2015

    

Nov. 2016

    

Percent Change
vs.
Dec. 2015

    

Percent Change
vs.
Nov. 2016
BMW (BMW, Mini)     $56,865     $54,525     $55,860     4.3%     1.8%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)     $58,692     $60,430     $60,074     -2.9%     -2.3%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)     $33,466     $33,095     $34,254     1.1%     -2.3%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)     $34,765     $35,929     $35,116     -3.2%     -1.0%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)     $40,249     $37,639     $38,776     6.9%     3.8%
Honda (Acura, Honda)     $27,368     $27,997     $27,644     -2.2%     -1.0%
Hyundai     $21,604     $24,277     $21,800     -11.0%     -0.9%
Kia     $21,506     $24,302     $21,357     -11.5%     0.7%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)     $26,784     $27,906     $27,387     -4.0%     -2.2%
Subaru     $27,357     $27,439     $25,808     -0.3%     6.0%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)     $32,190     $31,811     $30,892     1.2%     4.2%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)     $28,507     $37,403     $27,411     -23.8%     4.0%

Industry

    

$33,340

    

$33,723

    

$33,004

    

-1.1%

    

1.0%
                   

Incentive per Unit Spending

Manufacturer

    

Dec. 2016
Forecast

    

Dec. 2015

    

Nov. 2016

    

Percent Change
vs.
Dec. 2015

    

Percent Change
vs.
Nov. 2016
BMW (BMW, Mini)     $5,815     $4,769     $5,749     $21.9%     1.2%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)     $4,607     $4,520     $4,798     1.9%     -4.0%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)     $4,291     $3,520     $4,271     21.9%     0.5%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)     $4,190     $3,124     $4,228     34.1%     -0.9%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)     $4,611     $4,053     $4,782     13.8%     -3.6%
Honda (Acura, Honda)     $2,154     $1,731     $2,135     24.4%     0.9%
Hyundai     $2,606     $1,989     $2,619     31.0%     -0.5%
Kia     $3,416     $2,832     $3,369     20.6%     1.4%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)     $4,237     $3,657     $4,308     15.9%     -1.6%
Subaru     $1,162     $571     $1,183     103.4%     -1.8%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)     $2,723     $2,407     $2,788     13.2%     -2.3%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)     $4,392     $3,559     $4,464     23.4%     -1.6%

Industry

    

$3,673

    

$3,062

    

$3,731

    

20.0%

    

-1.6%
                   

Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP

Manufacturer

    

Dec. 2016
Forecast

    

Dec. 2015

    

Nov. 2016

    

Percent Change
vs.
Dec. 2015

    

Percent Change
vs.
Nov. 2016
BMW (BMW, Mini)     10.2%     8.7%     10.3%     16.9%     -0.6%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)     7.8%     7.5%     8.0%     4.9%     -1.7%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)     12.8%     10.6%     12.5%     20.5%     2.8%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)     12.1%     8.7%     12.0%     38.6%     0.1%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)     11.5%     10.8%     12.3%     6.4%     -7.1%
Honda (Acura, Honda)     7.9%     6.2%     7.7%     27.3%     1.9%
Hyundai     12.1%     8.2%     12.0%     47.3%     0.4%
Kia     15.9%     11.7%     15.8%     36.3%     0.7%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)     15.8%     13.1%     15.7%     20.7%     0.6%
Subaru     4.2%     2.1%     4.6%     104.0%     -7.4%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)     8.5%     7.6%     9.0%     11.8%     -6.3%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)     15.4%     9.5%     16.3%     61.9%     -5.4%

Industry

    

11.0%

    

9.1%

    

11.3%

    

21.3%

    

-2.5%
                   

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.