SANTA MONICA, Calif.—TrueCar, Inc. estimates that U.S. new vehicle sales generated $51.7 billion in May, down 0.8 percent from a year ago owing to the absence of one less full weekend for car buying compared with May 2015.
Stronger average transaction prices last month weren’t enough to help automakers post a 29th consecutive month of revenue increases, with the value of new vehicle sales dipping $399.5 million compared with the year-ago month. Incentive spending likely increased an estimated 7.1 percent from a year ago. As previously announced, TrueCar estimates sales of new cars and light trucks decreased by 4 percent last month to 1,569,538 units.
“Industry revenue is likely to be somewhat constrained by the calendar this May even as the summer-selling season kicks in," said Eric Lyman, TrueCar’s vice president of industry insights. “The fact that average transaction prices are still edging up underscores continuing health in demand for new cars and trucks.”
TrueCar estimates the average transaction price (ATP) for a new light vehicle was $32,944 in May, up 3.4 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit rose by $200 to $3,034. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP was 9.2 percent, up from 8.9 percent a year ago.
“Incentives as a percentage of average transaction price are up but only modestly from a year ago, which is a sign that automakers are still maintaining a relatively healthy approach to such spending,” said Oliver Strauss, TrueCar’s chief economist. “The sustained health of the U.S. economy and consumers’ needs to replace aging vehicles could put total sales near the 18 million mark for 2016.”
Table 1. Average transaction price
|
Manufacturer |
May 2016 Forecast |
May 2015 |
April 2016 |
Change vs. May 2015 |
Change vs. April 2016 |
|||||||||||||||
| FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | $33,168 | $32,680 | $33,532 | 1.5% | -1.1% | |||||||||||||||
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | $34,904 | $33,281 | $35,276 | 4.9% | -1.1% | |||||||||||||||
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | $36,810 | $34,224 | $36,857 | 7.6% | -0.1% | |||||||||||||||
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | $27,096 | $27,165 | $27,727 | -0.3% | -2.3% | |||||||||||||||
| Hyundai | $22,936 | $23,249 | $22,822 | -1.3% | 0.5% | |||||||||||||||
| Kia | $23,641 | $23,594 | $23,717 | 0.2% | -0.3% | |||||||||||||||
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | $27,416 | $27,202 | $27,239 | 0.8% | 0.6% | |||||||||||||||
| Subaru | $27,232 | $27,001 | $27,539 | 0.9% | -1.1% | |||||||||||||||
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | $31,310 | $30,022 | $31,275 | 4.3% | 0.1% | |||||||||||||||
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | $40,391 | $39,126 | $40,343 | 3.2% | 0.1% | |||||||||||||||
|
Industry |
$32,944 |
$31,868 |
$33,012 |
3.4% |
-0.2% |
|||||||||||||||
TrueCar estimates the average incentive for light vehicles in May will rise by $200, or 7.1 percent, from a year ago, and shrink by $12, or -0.4 percent, from April 2016.
Table 2. Incentive Spending
|
Manufacturer |
Incentive per Unit May 2016 Forecast |
Incentive per Unit % Change vs. May 2015 |
Incentive per Unit % Change vs. Apr 2016 |
Total Spending May 2016 Forecast |
||||||||||||
| BMW | $4,978 | 9.0% | -5.9% | $172,055,775 | ||||||||||||
| Daimler | $4,024 | -6.1% | 0.6% | $127,813,358 | ||||||||||||
| FCA | $3,926 | 19.8% | -1.4% | $809,038,347 | ||||||||||||
| Ford | $3,433 | 28.4% | -2.3% | $815,320,985 | ||||||||||||
| GM | $3,941 | 4.7% | -1.8% | $1,063,644,940 | ||||||||||||
| Honda | $1,635 | -15.7% | 1.9% | $249,063,486 | ||||||||||||
| Hyundai | $2,032 | -12.8% | 1.2% | $127,940,407 | ||||||||||||
| Kia | $2,715 | -0.3% | -0.2% | $165,463,033 | ||||||||||||
| Nissan | $3,342 | -2.1% | 3.4% | $448,764,037 | ||||||||||||
| Subaru | $612 | -18.5% | 2.8% | $29,939,793 | ||||||||||||
| Toyota | $2,029 | 0.4% | 1.6% | $453,431,066 | ||||||||||||
| Volkswagen Group | $3,448 | 17.0% | 0.1% | $181,318,261 | ||||||||||||
|
Industry |
$3,034 |
7.1% |
-0.4% |
$4,762,348,142 |
||||||||||||
This month’s ratio of incentive to ATP for light vehicles was 9.2 percent, up from 8.9 percent in May 2015 and unchanged 9.2 percent in April 2016, based on TrueCar analysis. Honda, Hyundai, Nissan, Subaru and GM showed the most improvement in ATP ratio in May versus the year-earlier month.
Table 3. Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP
|
Manufacturer |
May 2016 Forecast |
May 2015 |
April 2016 |
|||||||||||||||
| BMW (BMW, Mini) | 9.3% | 8.8% | 10.3% | |||||||||||||||
| Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | |||||||||||||||
| FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | 11.8% | 10.0% | 11.9% | |||||||||||||||
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | 9.8% | 8.0% | 10.0% | |||||||||||||||
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | 10.7% | 11.0% | 10.9% | |||||||||||||||
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | |||||||||||||||
| Hyundai | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.8% | |||||||||||||||
| Kia | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% | |||||||||||||||
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | 12.2% | 12.6% | 11.9% | |||||||||||||||
| Subaru | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | |||||||||||||||
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | |||||||||||||||
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | |||||||||||||||
|
Industry |
9.2% |
8.9% |
9.2% |
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