Another Wrinkle On Autonomous Driving - Additional Commentary

AUTO CENTRAL - A couple of weeks ago, we published an editorial regarding the future of autonomous driving, and how the event might wind up killing the public's love affair with the automobile (read that editorial HERE).

Today, Larry Nutson, our Chicago Bureau Chief, calls our attention to a recent story published in the Chicago Tribune written by Eric Schwitzgebel, a professor of philosophy at UC Riverside. The article is titled "Will your driverless car kill you so others may live?" The article addresses the legal and ethical implications of how autonomous vehicle computers will be programmed to deal with life and death situations. Professor Schwitzgebel poses the following scenario:

"You and your daughter are riding in a driverless car along the Pacific Coast Highway. The autonomous vehicle rounds a corner and detects a crosswalk full of children. It brakes, but your lane is unexpectedly full of sand from a recent rock slide. It can't get traction. Your car does some calculations: If it continues braking, there's a 90 percent chance that it will kill at least three children. Should it save them by steering you and your daughter off the cliff?"

This scenario is another intriguing aspect of autonomous driving that explores the unintended consequences of a technology that on the surface seems only beneficial.

The Auto Channel's Henny Hemmes and Carey Russ had this to say about the thesis:

Henny
"In the first example of a car avoiding children and killing its occupants, there may be another set up. The car sees the pedestrians much earlier than a human being and soft brakes much earlier, taking into account the sand covered road. The car may chose to make a 360 degree spin in order to reduce the speed. It can do so because of the sand. It may warn the children well ahead as well.

I have tested an autonomous car on the race track and the car dealt with a suddenly wet stretch of the track. To be honest, the slide was well controlled and much better than the average experienced driver can do.

I have tested a car that communicated with traffic lights, adjusting its speed and much more. But how long would it take cities to offer X2X communication of their traffic systems? Who is going to pay for this?"

Carey
"More outsourcing of intelligence, what could possibly go wrong? We should have better **human** driver (and other) training and standards, not be replacing thinking with machines. As for serious "artificial intelligence" as in machines that can learn and adapt, I agree with Stephen Hawking. Don't go there. It may not be your friend, Asimov's rules of robotics notwithstanding.

Is anyone out there thinking of the economic consequences of widespread replacement of humans by machines? Not just the mostly unskilled and semi-skilled blue-collar jobs that have already been lost -- what proper policy wonk give a rat's ass about poor people when there are plutocrats to be served? -- but more skilled tasks with decision-making that may have moral consequences? (oh wait, morals and our ruling class in one sentence, my bad…) After all, doesn't everyone have a trust fund? Didn't you make millions off your IPO? If not, why would you be worth considering?

Let's not forget that technology is "inherently obsolescent." Newer than tomorrow, obsolete yesterday! Upgrade before you download! Consume mass quantities! Sustainability not spoken here… don't fix it, throw it away. Already the new cars that are so great are going to be the worst used cars ever as the electronics begin to fail after a few years. Parts availability? No more than the minimum legal requirement. Generic parts? Liability lawyers will nix that. You can keep a `50s Ferrari (or anything else, ask the Cubans) running pretty much forever as parts can be made. Not true of anything in the integrated electronic era…

I'm reminded of a short story by Larry Niven, set in the distant future. An old interstellar liner breaks down. No one on board - neither the crew or passengers - knows how to fix anything. Yep, there's our future, maybe.

And remember, all software has bugs."

Larry Nutson
"I'm still of the mind we will us see low speed autonomous cars in defined communities in a few years. To that, I was one of many in Dearborn at Ford WHQ on Thursday for various technology and program updates.. (Four news releases from this program have been published on TACH, if you missed them.)

I approached Raj Nair Ford EVP for Product Development and, tongue in cheek, asked him when I could give up my driver's license (not that I actually want to) since we will then have fully autonomous cars on the road. Raj responded that around 2020 in about 30 cities around the world that are well mapped with a very high level of GPS information AND weather conditions suitable for autonomous cars to operate and function, we will have them on the road. Snow and rain are the problem conditions wherein the cars have difficulty to see and detect.

I'm skeptical that this really can work after I watch many of the different goings-on in routine, everyday Chicago dry-dry-weather traffic. We'll see.

The good news is autonomous cars will help provide improved personal transportation for senior citizens. And as I also see it, a ten year old could be the only person in an autonomous car being taken to school or an extracurricular event."

Henny
"The OEMs have a slew of systems that are essential for autonomous driving cars, they are currently developing the technology to let those systems communicate with each other. I have driven on the Autobahn at 80 mph in autonomous cars. Speed is no problem. Distance control is no problem, Automatic slowing down/braking is not, Lane keeping is not etc. The demonstration laps with the Mercedes F 01 Luxury in Motion showed that the car can signal and communicate with pedestrians and/or cyclists. But fully autonomous cars, according to the German OEMs, will always need a person with a drivers license in the car, so a 10 year old going to school may be a far future vision.

At the moment, the separate systems are strongly improving safety. First of all, I expect regulators to demand that many of these possibilities become standard. It is expected that by 2020, we can fully autonomous drive on the freeways and especially in heavy traffic. I do not expect it will happen in cities by that time. Also: How long will it take before the legislation is settled?"

Larry
"Yes, today enjoy smart cruise control, lane keep assist, smart brake assist. Ford has parking assist. It seems every week I get to use and experience these systems in one or another OEM's vehicle.

Legislation will indeed be key. There will be differences between Europe, Asia and the U.S. And in the U.S., the regulations are controlled by each of the 50 states.

My thought on a young person traveling alone in an autonomous car comes from Google, who has said they will build a car with no controls at all for a driver to use and take over."

Henny
"Another thought: Bosch has developed a warning system for wrong way ghost drivers, It is just another step and not only will our eyes see this warning, our cars can receive it and automatically stop alongside the road."

What do you think? Use the Livefyre discussion window below or send your comments
to info@theautochannel.com.

EDITOR's Note: TACH has lots of articles about individual aspects of autonomous driving - Use the search window at the top of every page to find them.
Here's a few videos about autonomous driving that we think you'll find interesting, beginning with a video from 2008: