NASCAR NNCS (DAYTONA) - In The Loop

Stats: Urgency Felt by Outsiders

Those drivers on the outside of the top 12 have raced with a sense of urgency over the past three races. At least that’s what the stats say.

Ryan Newman, Kurt Busch and Jamie McMurray – currently vying for a spot in the top 12 – sit 13th through 15th, respectively. But since the Race to the Chase (the 10 events leading up to the Chase for the NASCAR NEXTEL Cup) began three races ago at New Hampshire International Speedway, all three have cut their points deficits.

Prior to the New Hampshire race, Kurt Busch was in 16th place, 171 points behind 12th-place Dale Earnhardt Jr. Two top 10s later, Busch is 14th, just 77 points out.

Ryan Newman began the Race to the Chase in 13th position. He’s still there, but is now only 30 points behind Earnhardt – he started with a 96-point deficit.

Jamie McMurray, with his Pepsi 400 win, also has closed the gap. McMurray started the Race to the Chase 129 points out of the top 12. He’s now 111 points out.

Busch and Newman, especially, have excelled over the first three races of the Race to the Chase. Below are some of the stats of drivers who were targeting the 12th-place cutoff prior to New Hampshire. (Each driver’s points standing at the start of the Race to the Chase is in parentheses. Their rank below is their overall rank over the past three races in that category):

Driver Rating Rk Driver DR 1. Kyle Busch (10th) 111.9 6. Kurt Busch (16th) 101.4 7. Martin Truex Jr. (11th) 100.0 9. Ryan Newman (13th) 97.7 11. Clint Bowyer (9th) 90.1 12. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (12th) 89.4 17. Jamie McMurray (14th) 74.7

Average Running Position Rk Driver ARP 1. Kyle Busch 5.856 5. Ryan Newman 9.434 6. Kurt Busch 9.506 7. Martin Truex Jr. 9.947 12. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 5.626 13. Clint Bowyer 16.370 22. Jamie McMurray 21.644

Laps in the Top 15 (out of 727) Rk Driver Laps 1. Kyle Busch 714 4. Ryan Newman 643 5. Martin Truex Jr. 642 8. Kurt Busch 593 10. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 546 15. Clint Bowyer 380 20. Jamie McMurray 153

Quality Passes* Rk Driver QP 1. Ryan Newman 251 6. Martin Truex Jr. 233 7. Kyle Busch 226 8. Kurt Busch 197 10. Jamie McMurray 173 13. Clint Bowyer 145 18. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 111

* – Quality Passes are passes of cars in the top 15 under green flag conditions.

In the cases of Kurt Busch and Newman, the finishes also have favored those outside the top 12:

Average Finish Rk Driver Avg. Fin. 4. Kyle Busch 8.7 5. Kurt Busch 10.0 7. Ryan Newman 10.7 15. Clint Bowyer 18.0 17. Jamie McMurray 18.3 17. Martin Truex Jr. 18.3 20. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 19.7

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As for the remaining seven tracks in the Race to the Chase, Kurt Busch seems like a driver who could make a major move. Busch has nine career wins at the upcoming seven tracks – only Jeff Gordon (24) and Tony Stewart (10) have more. Over the past two years at the seven tracks, he has a solid Driver Rating of 97.0 and an Average Running Position of 13.4.